SGM-FX insights

  China Politburo   China’s monetary policy will be more flexible and its fiscal policy more proactive in H2 2020. While a long way from embracing Western human rights values as we know, China is demonstrating that its economic approach is completely different today to how it was when the First 5 year Plan focussing […]

Grace Hopper 1907-1992   GH had a sparkling career stemming from an insatiable curiosity for knowledge as a child; she went on to enjoy a first class education at Vassar College followed by a PhD in mathematics at Yale University. Having extended her mathematics knowledge into a career in what became computer science, Grace Hopper […]

Australia   With their budget deficit already at a record at A$86 Billion versus a budgeted A$ 5 Billion surplus, Australia is forecasting it to get much worse at A$184 Billion this coming year. AUD at 1.41 versus USD.     South Korea   For the first time in 17 years, South Korea has entered […]

Global Japanification     I’m told that when you make a risotto, you’re supposed to add the stock a ladle at a time and let it evaporate/absorb. Have you ever just dumped the lot in and feared you’ve ruined the whole dish? How about building a fire. Have you ever smothered it in so much […]

UK Economy   Economists professed disappointment at yesterday’s release of the 1.8% rebound in the UK economy in May and GBP sold off accordingly. While housing starts and manufacturing showed improvement, this was not enough for the economists. May was the month that the UK was still pretty much fully locked down and in addition […]

Bonus Season   Yesterday afternoon’s charismatic speech by Chancellor Rishi Sunak in the House of Commons was peppered with bellows of “hear hear” from PM Johnson from the front bench. The Chancellor had built up a bit of a reputation for under promising and over delivering in the past few months of his trial-by-fire ministerial […]

Another Round?   One of the more noble of public surveys carried out recently came from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). They asked UK adults whether they will be heading to the pub in the near future as they open their doors to the public for the first time in 103 days (not that […]

Cummings and Goings   The most divisive thing in the United Kingdom since Brexit seems to be the adherence of the Prime Minister’s Chief advisor, Dominic Cummings, to the lockdown rules. If you’ve somehow managed to ignore the story, it concerns allegations that the senior advisor travelled an agonisingly precise 264 miles to a family home […]

Positively not negative   In a press conference yesterday Jay Powell distanced himself and his central Bank from the possibility of negative interest rates. It might sound a little dry and with hundreds of thousands of people having already lost their lives to Coronavirus, a little misplaced. However, to the foreign exchange market this news […]

Bargain Hunt   You’ll be reassured that this morning’s daily brief is not a homage to the BBC One  day time television program. Whilst I’m sure the retired program has played a significant role in the furlough of many an individual across the UK, its relationship to the foreign exchange market is somewhat more tenuous. Instead I […]

Cat’s eyes   A useful perspective or model to employ for evaluating where the Pound is headed is by looking at where it is within its tight post-Brexit trading range. We produced a visual analysis previously that showed how Sterling was right at the top of that traded range on a trade-weighted basis and therefore, […]

Care   Yesterday evening the United Kingdom learned that its Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, had been moved to the intensive care unit of St Thomas’ Hospital following a deterioration in his condition. We wish the Prime Minister a speedy and thorough recovery from the virus. Last night it was easy to see Twitter warriors condemning […]