SGM-FX insights

Brussels Sprouts Little   Sure, Johnson met Merkel in Berlin yesterday but you try and make a pun suggesting political frustration and Germany’s capital city! Suggestions welcome! Now, in the real world this week, Sterling has been pushed higher (Monday), dragged lower (Tuesday and Wednesday) on whims of reports of progress and then frustration on the […]

Recession?   About a decade ago you could pick up virtually any newspaper (with perhaps the exception of the Daily Star or the Sun) and see the phrase Double Dip Recession or equivalent brandished on the front page. Whether it was accompanied by a vitriolic attack on the incumbent Conservative government, a backward-looking blame on […]

GBP and What is the Outlook over the next 3 months?   A number of our clients both private and corporate are asking us what the outlook for GBP is with the differing probabilities of outcomes on Brexit: No Deal is given a probability of 30%, a Deal by 31 October 15%, a delay to the […]

  Aussie Rules   As England does battle with Australia at Edgbaston for the 5 Day Test Match and all those cricket stats are dusted off, we have been looking at how GBP has done against AUD in the past 10 years. In 2009, if one timed it right GBP would buy AUD 2.00 but […]

‘ave a word!   Last night’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve in the United States was a messy one. In fact the decision itself was rather well presented by Chairman Jay Powell and the FOMC but markets’ interpretations of the decision seemed fraught with confusion. Equities, bonds and the US Dollar all moved […]

US-China Trade Talks   For the first time in over 3 months the two sides reconvened yesterday for the oldest reason in the world: self-interest. Make no mistake these trade disagreements are costing real money to both sides: Huawei is hurting following the US banning American firms from using their technology; US agriculture is hurting […]

Submerged Sterling   All hell was breaking loose in financial markets yesterday whilst Johnson was visiting a submarine in Scotland. Photographed inside the control room, a stern-faced Boris couldn’t have done much more to develop the perception of his war-cabinet and his hard nosed government. Okay, perhaps firing one of the missiles at Brussels to […]

Federal Reserve   With the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, the expectation given Governor Jerome Powell’s recent comments , is that the Fed will cut the discount rate by 25 basis points. The thinking goes that the priority is to stimulate the economy and that inflation is at such a low level that this […]

Europe   With the Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing on a 79 month low, despite heroic efforts by ECB Governor Mario Draghi to inject vim and vigour into the EU economies, the legacy for incoming Christine Lagarde is not great to say the least: Germany and France seeing economic activity weakening, growth across the Eurozone […]

Give away day!   Get ya free money; get ya free money. It’s ECB decision day and with a 10 basis point cut already priced into markets, pressure is on the ECB either to take policy action immediately or set the path towards a September rate cut. Just one week ahead of the Federal Reserve […]

Brexit   Selected by the Conservative Party to deliver Brexit it is now down to Boris to put the Boris factor into Brexit- and deliver. GBP unchanged pro tem and the wider market watching this morning for his cabinet appointments which will be the first signs of intent-and ability.   Gold and Star market   […]

Brexit   Selected by the Conservative Party to deliver Brexit it is now down to Boris to put the Boris factor into Brexit- and deliver. GBP unchanged pro tem and the wider market watching this morning for his cabinet appointments which will be the first signs of intent-and ability.     Gold and Star market […]