SGM-FX insights

Super Mario   Finally running out of Mushrooms, Super Mario has delivered his last speech as President of the European Central Bank. I’m sure there were other jokes afforded by the potential to assimilate the Italian central banker’s name within a popular Nintendo character and game but, with an underwhelming appetite for video games, I’ll […]

Greece   They may have lost their (Elgin) marbles, but Greece is clearly doing something right: with their economy due to grow by 2.8% next year, they have joined the elite group of countries that are able to issue government debt at negative interest rates. Yes! Greece is able to charge storage for investor money! […]

Sagging   Of the $6.6tn daily foreign exchange market, trading across the two leviathans, EUR and USD, takes the lion’s share. In normal times then, the sheer weight of demand and supply behind both of these two major currencies makes the EURUSD pair relatively flat. However, when presented with a big enough reason, the value […]

Windfall or the Economics of the Madhouse   To most of us including the Cambridge English Dictionary a windfall is an amount of money that you win or receive unexpectedly. The managers of Eurozone economics view a windfall as being money that they have saved due to lower global interest rates. Now this may seem […]

European Central Bank stimulus   As expected a fresh stimulus package was approved by the ECB yesterday which saw the deposit rate cut to -0.5% and the restart of EUR 20 Billion bond purchases per month starting November and with no announced end date. Analysts are still sifting through the tea leaves of outgoing Governor […]

Turkey and Trump(TNT-hopefully not)   With Turkey taking delivery of the first batch of Russian S400 missile systems last week, it was inevitable that POTUS would retaliate by imposing sanctions this week. It is unclear what those may include and there is a range of possibilities from the withholding of the F35 jetfighter manufactured by […]

Greece   Exit polls are reflecting what was widely expected: a widespread rejection of Syriza and incumbent PM Tsipras. The New Democracy Party led by Kyriakos Mitsokakis has a clear lead with 38% of the vote over Syriza with approx 28%. This will further strengthen Greece’s standing and build on its recent acceptance by the […]

La-En-Garde!     The bond market was on guard yesterday, with money flooding into fixed income assets in anticipation of an even longer than foreseen period of accommodative monetary policy. Record yields were produced once again yesterday both within Europe and across the Atlantic. The reason? Among the leading causes of yesterday’s bond rally is […]

Italy and its Budget: a contradiction in terms   As described here two weeks ago, Italy is pushing hard against tough budgetary restraints from the EU. The gap is €40 Billion. Italy’s Deputy PM is playing hardball and has reminded the EU just how much Italy owes to the rest of the EU with the […]

Pocahontas     Even the pros at Disney might have trouble thinking up and depicting the delicate rise and fall of emotions between China’s Xi Jinping and the States’ Donald Trump. Following this weekend’s summit, we’re closer to the resolve, the closing credits and watching the fully grown man in the back row pretending he […]

Group of 20     How many sets of eyes and ears do you really need in order to react quickly to the set of discussions taking place in Osaka, Japan this Friday? A minimum for 10 pairs, assuming each leader has a conversation with at least one other person and doesn’t have a solitary […]

Sintra, Portugal and the ECB Governor   Mario Draghi ECB Governor despite the reported highest rate of wage growth reported earlier in the week saw weak inflation and growth as key challenges in his speech at Sintra yesterday. He also said that further rate cuts remain an option that the ECB may choose. So it […]