SGM-FX insights

Back to Basics As we know, back to basics means different things to different people and most memorably for PM John Major it meant back to my place for Edwina Currie who for the benefit of younger readers was not his wife. In her keynote address to the world’s top Central Bankers in Sintra, Portugal […]

Next UK Chancellor Spoiler alert: we do not have a clue as to what is going through Andy Burnham’s mind for his pick for the next UK Chancellor. Instead, we have looked at the bookmaker Paddy Power odds which show that Wes Streeting in return for his loyalty is 10/3, but the clear favourite is […]

EUR Expanding on what we wrote yesterday, there has been quite a move in EUR/USD in the past week. The rise in EUR interest rates 2 weeks ago was enough to confirm the ECB’s adherence to its inflation fighting mandate and temporarily strengthen EUR. Then last week the rhetoric from the newly minted Federal Reserve […]

EU-China The EU has a trade deficit of almost exactly EUR 1 billion per day every day with China and there is an increasing debate within the EU as to what to do about it. At some point, China can expect a plea from Brussels to let the Yuan appreciate given that it is being […]

UK Spend Given the probable change of 10 Downing Street incumbent and the even more probable identity of the new PM and his promise of change, it is worth looking as to how he could deliver on what are irreconcilable conflicting promises: no (further) tax rises and the continuation of the Triple Lock and a […]

British Pound While inflation at 2.8% and the prospect of a peace deal were cited as reasons to leave UK interest rates unchanged given the fall in Oil prices with Brent at USD 78.58, the effect on Sterling as we suggested earlier in the week was immediate: it fell sharply. That was before the result […]

Peace Deal As news begins to emerge from the G7 Evian les Bains talks, at the time of writing there is still very little either in detail or in writing as to what the 60-day US-Iran Peace Deal contains, resulting in more questions than answers. John Bolton the very much ex advisor to POTUS contends […]

British Pound Ahead of Thursday’s by election, it is worth looking at Sterling and instead of predicting gloom and doom – initially at least – pose the question as to what would make Sterling appreciate at this time? Economic growth: not apparent given that the UK economy is contracting slightly following a drop in spending […]

USD 30 million With US inflation at 4.2% in May from 1 year earlier, the room for manoeuvre for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is looking problematic. Gasoline is up 50%, airline fares 27%, clothing 5%, and electricity 6% from a year ago. The challenge of satisfying POTUS who is expecting interest rate cuts […]

Federal Reserve Today’s US inflation figures will be even more closely watched than usual given that the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy will in large part depend on how they look. Add into the mix the on-off and hopefully on nature of the Iran-US peace talks which alternatively drives USD down and […]

US Employment As we wrote on Friday, USD was going into the weekend strong. In fact, it became stronger still on employment data released on Friday afternoon: the expectation from what were known in the 1970’s as chart monkeys, in the 1980’s as teenage scribblers then in the first Bloomberg TV age of the 1990’s […]

USD 30 million That is the level of wealth one must have amassed to qualify for inclusion in the category of what wealth managers and private bankers term as ultra rich. Of the world’s 7 billion people less than 1 million are ultra rich and despite the efforts of the current UK government to relieve […]