SGM-FX insights

US Dollar If you are struggling to understand the US Administration’s Dollar policy, then you are far from being alone. Last week, POTUS when asked about the weakening US Dollar and whether it had declined too much replied that he thought it “Just great.” That prompted Treasury secretary Bessent to try to calm markets on […]

European Central Bank A remarkable interview from Central Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Simkus yesterday, who is also a rate setter on the Board of the ECB for two reasons: the first is the frankness with which he spoke unlike those Delphic pronouncements from most of his predecessors which could be parsed in different ways; […]

Japanese Yen By the time you read this, it is more than possible that the Bank of Japan in accord with the USA have jointly undertaken Yen intervention. The Yen strengthened sharply on Friday night as sentiment moved towards that happening. The level of USD/JPY 160 is seen as the level that will be defended. […]

Greenland Deal Do not expect details of the deal here since only a select few know what was discussed between POTUS and Mark Rutte, Head of NATO or indeed even if there is a deal as opposed to a face-saving way forward between POTUS and NATO/Europe. The suggestion is that (finally) senior Republicans have woken […]

UK Wage Growth With yesterday’s UK employment figures came some somewhat surprising commentary: inflation at 3.2% was good news for the Bank of England and the likelihood for a cut in interest rates had increased. The latter is of course good for the economy and particularly beleaguered householders worrying about their cheap mortgage deals running […]

Canola for Cars That was the deal struck by Canada’s Mark Carney with China’s President Xi on Friday evening in Beijing. The China tariff until then on canola oil imported from Canada was 85% but that will fall to 15% and in exchange Canada will levy a mere 6.1% on the imports of Chinese electric […]

K Shaped This is the term applied to an economy – in this case that of the USA – when one part is flourishing and the other is declining. No better an example than that of Delta Airlines which this week reported its Q4 2025 earnings which showed that Main cabin or Economy sales had […]

EU and Venezuela In 2024, the EU exported EUR 800 million of goods to Venezuela and imported EUR 2.1 billion, giving a trade volume of EUR 2.9 billion. The exports are mainly made up of minerals, chemicals, and machine goods, and the imports are of course primarily oil. As for the main EU country doing […]

British Pound In case you missed the beginning of this month, GBP had a moment in the sun but has since slipped back. Without overthinking it, we have GDP figures on Thursday this week which will show how productive the UK is and Employment figures next week which will be the key indicator for whether […]

Tunbridge Wells Not so much angry as furious and demanding answers, Tunbridge Wells ground to a halt at the end of November when 24,000 householders were without water for 14 days due to South East Water’s Treatment plant in neighbouring Pembury operating in the mealy mouthed words of the company’s more than generously remunerated CEO, sub-optimally. Poor […]

Venezuela For the citizens of Venezuela, the last year has been a tale of ever-increasing economic hardship. Despite deposed President Maduro’s claim that growth has been at 9%, the counter to that is that inflation is estimated at 500%. Exactly a year ago it would have cost 52 Bolivars to buy USD 1. That same purchase […]

Bulgaria On Thursday last week Bulgaria formally adopted the Euro and for 6 months both EUR and the Lev will be legal tender in Bulgaria. In practice, Bulgaria already moved to the EUR in January 2025 when last week’s adoption was approved. Bulgaria, a country with 6.8 million people, is one of the EU’s poorest […]