SGM-FX insights

World’s wealthiest non USA person That title belongs of course to the suave 76 year old Frenchman Bernard Arnault whose LVMH shares have suffered of late on the back of France’s economic and political woes combined with POTUS’ tariffs that had walloped the outlook for French luxury goods in the US market. On Wednesday of […]

UK Growth To refresh your memories, UK Growth fell 0.1% in July and the hope or more accurately the expectation was that July was an aberration which would be rectified when the men with the clipboards reported on UK Growth for August. In the case of Chancellor Reeves, that expectation was rather more of a prayer […]

China and the USA What prompted POTUS to escalate the trade war last week? Before answering that, it is worth a refresh on the current state of play: US tariffs on China average 58% and China on the US 33%, and the next cliffhanger date is November 10, after which the current threat is for […]

Friday night US Markets There was an element of the US stock market temporarily running out of oxygen at the heady heights that it had reached and looking for an excuse to take profits/sell. That excuse was provided in spades by POTUS who pronounced that he would implement much higher tariffs against China. That was […]

US Dollar A further lurch upwards for USD yesterday morning as French politics affected the EUR and the prospect of Japan’s first female Prime Minister as well as the accompanying uncertainty weaken JPY. GBP also feeling the effects of that strong USD. The USD/JPY at 152.80 also in uncomfortable territory for Japan. EUR/JPY 177.41. China Youth […]

US Dollar For differing reasons USD is having a strong week both against the Japanese Yen and the EUR. Both currencies are weakened by political headwinds but that is where the similarities end. France is rather more influencing the EUR due to worries over its debt and its resistance to getting it under control. Japan […]

US Government Shutdown In the past 50 years the US Government has shut down 21 times the longest of which was in 2018 which was for 5 weeks – and that to remind you was during Trump 1. Why might this time be different? This time POTUS has stated his determination to take the opportunity […]

Reparation Loan 3.5 years in, and the EU is gradually reaching agreement on how to assist Ukraine financially – well almost. Admittedly, the principle of seizing a countries’ frozen assets is ground-breaking, but so was the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the seizing of land and assets. In case you are unaware, the proposal […]

A Fork in The Road? Well that was UK PM SirKeir’s “rallying” cry to the UK electorate: it’s me or Reform. Hmm. In a bit of a mixed day for the UK government with some poor Q2 UK economic growth figures at 0.3% after a better Q1 at 0.7%. Then keynote speeches from the UK […]

UK Gilt Yields Why is the cost of Government borrowing and thus consumer debt higher in the UK than in Europe? Fear not, this is not a Chancellor Reeves political rant, although the markets are yet to be convinced 15 months in that she has mastered her brief; rather it is the following: persistently high inflation […]

EU Chamber of Commerce China Chamber Supremo Jens Eskelund gave a speech this week which made it all too apparent that China is directing its trade exports away from tariff heavy USA to tariff light EU. At the same time, China is making it much harder for foreign businesses to operate in China. That imbalance […]

Centre for Policies Studies This UK think tank has had a good amount of egg on its corporate visage this week due to leader of Reform Nigel Farage using one of the CPFS’ own statistics when he made a speech saying that GBP234 billion could be saved by excluding migrants from benefits. As emotive and […]