SGM-FX insights

Loonyness   This week brought the “news” that Canadian real estate has been the beneficiary of the Harry and Meghan circus moving to Vancouver. And what was the evidence for this? The answer is that hits on the Rightmove site have increased by 70% in the past month: incontrovertible proof! Here at SGM-FX we scoff […]

Kung Hei Fat Choy   As we embark on the Year of the Rat, a very happy new year to our Chinese readers. Remy Cointreau is hoping that the coronavirus does not stop the huge Chinese drinking market from quaffing their cognac as well as The Botanist Gin and METAXA Greek brandy which also form […]

There’s no business like shoe business   Reassuring to learn that even the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett occasionally( very occasionally) gets it wrong. Back in 1993: he paid $433 million for a shoe company named Dexter Shoes. Quickly he realised that he had bought a dud as its shoe product was being undercut by […]

Signed, sealed, not delivered   A trade deal is done between the US and China: call the IMF to tell them to change global growth forecasts; let emerging market currencies rally at the expense of overvalued safe-havens! Sadly not.   Whilst Trump didn’t give markets any last minute surprises by refusing to sign the document […]

Global Bank Shares   Looking at the net movement over the past 10 years there is a mixed picture: Broadly the USA has done best; Bank of America +1066%; JP Morgan +756%; Wells Fargo +505%. Europeans the worst Deutsche -595, Intesa -11% and Unicredit -86%. But having said that, ING +332%, KBC +742% and Skan […]

Fun while it lasted   The flight to safety and risk-off fire sale sparked by the events following the assassination order of Iranian General Soleimani seem to have been erased by markets as we open in Europe this morning. Cable (GBPUSD) trades almost exactly in line with where it did this time last week despite […]

China and USA: It’s not just trade…   With the so called Phase One of the Trade Deal in place since the end of 2019, negotiators on both sides are turning their attention to the financial war between the two nations. For those who have not appreciated this, there are 172 Chinese companies listed on […]

How to trade a problem like Soleimani?   Since the drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani last week, markets have reacted with a flight towards defensive assets and classic hedging trades against middle eastern tensions. The winning candidate at yesterday morning’s open was oil, with Brent Crude up as much […]

Currency Feature this morning   USD stronger across the board.     Eastern Mediterranean   With full scale gas production due to come on stream in Q1 in the Eastern Mediterranean, it was not surprising that Greece, Cyprus and Israel broke cover yesterday with the announcement of the construction of a new Eastern Mediterranean pipeline […]

  Last Christmas Cracker Joke for 2019 (honest) : Why didn’t the lobster share his Christmas treats? Because he was shellfish!   Markets   The main feature in the past few days has been the firm oil price of $61.31 for WTI as a result of firstly reduced inventories(that old adage of more demand than […]

OPEC and budgeting for energy prices in 2020   This Thursday and Friday OPEC producers and their allies will be talking about adding to the existing curbs on production. What that means and Goldman Sachs concurs, is that the oil price will firm to over $60 per barrel in 2020 from the current level of […]

Turbulence   As Air Force One landed in London Stansted Airport yesterday a swathe of helicopters and vehicles greeted it. Strategically posted around the runway, the imposing presence wasn’t protestors and news agencies finding out more about the tariffs that Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had been surprising markets with back across the Atlantic. Instead they […]