Morning Brief – US Dollar

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Mon 5 Oct 2020

US Dollar


Back in the 1990’s the Japanese Yen’s strength based on Japan’s trade position with the USA and the flows of capital inwards to the USA to fund its ballooning deficit, marked the likely direction for the US Dollar versus the other major traded currencies: the GBP, German Deutschmark and Swiss Franc. Until 2005 the Chinese Reminbi was fixed against the US Dollar and after 2015 the People’s Bank of China-PBoC- the Chinese Central Bank allowed the Chinese Reminbi to float more freely versus USD. With China’s economy so much larger today in global terms plus the swift bounce back from Covid in China in 2020, recent strengthening in the Reminbi is signaling that firstly the Chinese Reminbi has assumed the previous role of the Japanese Yen as bellwether for other major trading currencies against USD, and secondly that the Reminbi is indicating further future USD weakness versus EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY.


South Africa


Car part manufacturers seeing a slump in demand for their normal output have turned to manufacture ventilators and other Covid related PPE items that are in short supply in RSA. This has the twin benefit of addressing those shortfalls in equipment and also keeping their workers in jobs. Reef Engineering the Johannesburg company and Rand York Castings the Durban company are just two examples of this shift in output. At ZAR 16.49 at the end of last week, the Rand is not out of the woods but has benefitted from a weaker USD having been as low as 19 back in May.


Olivia Newton-John


Hands up all those who thought ON-J was Australian! In fact she was born in Cambridge, UK and her parents emigrated to Melbourne when she was 6. Before the smash hit that was Grease, she had already carved out a successful career and this number from 1974 was at the top of the charts for weeks at that time:

I honestly Love You ( for the sake of clarity, that’s the name of the song!)


Maybe I hang around here

A little more than I should
We both know I got somewhere else to go
But I got something to tell you
That I never thought I would
But I believe you really ought to know


I love you
I honestly love you


You don’t have to answer
I see it in your eyes
Maybe it was better left unsaid
This is pure and simple
And you should realize
That it’s coming from my heart and not my head


I love you
I honestly love you


I’m not trying to make you feel uncomfortable
I’m not trying to make you anything at all
But this feeling doesn’t come along everyday
And you shouldn’t blow the chance




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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