SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – It’s raining, it’s pouring

Morning Brief – It’s raining, it’s pouring

Charles Porter Thu 23 May 2024

It’s raining, it’s pouring And Rishi Sunak was cawing. Stood defiantly behind the lectern placed in the middle of Downing Street, if it weren’t for the puddles accumulating on Rishi’s shoulders, you’d have never known it was lashing down with rain in central London yesterday. Only time will tell whether the rehearsed and enthusiastic declaration […]

Morning Brief – Gold

Morning Brief – Gold

Humphrey Percy Wed 22 May 2024

Gold The gold bulls are having a high old time with the metal at almost its all time high of Monday. There are three main reasons for this: first is the amount of gold bought by the world’s Central Banks in past months, second is the huge demand from China as holders of Yuan fearful […]

Morning Brief – Will the BoE cut in June?

Morning Brief – Will the BoE cut in June?

Charles Porter Tue 21 May 2024

Will the BoE cut in June? According to markets at the close of trading yesterday, a June rate cut from the Bank of England is likely. However, priced at just a 58% probability, you can see just how open the ground for the Bank of England’s June meeting remains. For some time now June has […]

Morning Brief – Asian Currency Wars

Morning Brief – Asian Currency Wars

Humphrey Percy Mon 20 May 2024

Asian Currency Wars A thoughtful article in the South China Post on Saturday evening raised the spectre for what many fear but few choose to put into words: China opting for a significant devaluation of the Yuan to make it more competitive and that in turn triggering devaluations in the other Asian economies.  The reason […]

Morning Brief – Japanese  Yen

Morning Brief – Japanese Yen

Humphrey Percy Fri 17 May 2024

Japanese Yen As soon as a rash of market analysts concluded yesterday that the Yen was a basket case and that the Bank of Japan were wasting their money intervening to prop up the Yen, the Japanese Yen strengthened markedly on the back of US data admittedly rather than positive Japan data, but it certainly […]

Morning Brief – a C and a P, PI

Morning Brief – a C and a P, PI

Charles Porter Thu 16 May 2024

a C and a P, PI Two price indices have been released within the US this week. That released on Tuesday covered the change in prices at the producer level. On Wednesday, it was markets’ turn to look at consumer price levels. Only one of the price level readings had a meaningful impact upon markets. […]

Morning Brief – UK Pay

Morning Brief – UK Pay

Humphrey Percy Wed 15 May 2024

UK Pay With unemployment at its highest since last year with the Q1 rate at 4.3%, it would look safe to assume that the Bank of England would be encouraged to cut UK interest rates sooner rather than later; however with wage growth at 6% providing the counter argument to sooner, the first cut may […]

Morning Brief – An inflation focussed week

Morning Brief – An inflation focussed week

Charles Porter Tue 14 May 2024

An inflation focussed week The name of the game in markets currently still revolves around deciding how the respective paths of monetary policy easing will look across the globe. The hot forecast is therefore how inflation should be expected to be recorded amongst nations and currency areas. Given the importance of inflation statistics in deciding […]

Morning Brief – IAG

Morning Brief – IAG

Humphrey Percy Mon 13 May 2024

IAG The owner of British Airways reported higher than expected profits at €68m for Q1 up from €9m in the same period in 2023. Lower fuel costs, higher ticket sales and more efficient delivery were cited as the reasons. Long suffering loyal customers of BA know that higher prices, a reduction in routes and numbers […]

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Humphrey Percy Fri 10 May 2024

Bank of England Yesterday the BoE was closely watched for two forecasts and also for confirmation that interest rates would be left unchanged as was expected by the markets. In the event, interest rates were indeed left at 5.25% and the forecast for inflation is that it is set to fall from its current 3.2% […]

Morning Brief – Onto June

Morning Brief – Onto June

Charles Porter Thu 2 May 2024

Onto June A slew of strong US economic data over recent weeks had boosted expectations for how the culmination of the Fed’s two-day meeting would be presented to the public last night. The story goes back further. The narrative dominant in late-2023 of a US economy in need of restrictive monetary policy was unavoidable. The […]

Morning Brief – Germany and the EU

Morning Brief – Germany and the EU

Humphrey Percy Wed 1 May 2024

Germany and the EU The Germany Supply Chain Act came into force in 2023 as a result of Germans wanting to do something good for employees in other countries in particular with respect to human rights and environmental issues. So far so good. But a combination of cost and bureaucracy overlaid with the difficulty of […]

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