SGM-FX insights

Ceasefire  Following talks in Switzerland over the weekend, a 90-day pause to Trump’s liberation day tariffs on China has been announced. The publication of a joint statement yesterday morning prompted heavy USD buying. The result of the negotiations is that for 90 days as of tomorrow, the tariffs imposed during Trump’s liberation day announcement and […]

Beyond USD A comment caught our eye over the weekend: assuming that US markets will recover is not a strategy, it is now for the first time in decades a gamble. With the Vix volatility index of the S&P500 still high, US Treasuries having failed the test recently when they failed to rally at market […]

Stagflation USA This is the spectre confronting Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the wider USA. It is unusual simultaneously to have both rising unemployment and higher prices with the consequence of rising inflation, but that is where the USA stands today, in the face of the TT or Trump tariffs. Unsurprisingly, despite POTUS offering his […]

Fed Hold The Fed is clearly unperturbed from the political pressures rising against it. Despite vocal opposition from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent to lower rates, the Fed looks set to keep rates on hold for longer. The Fed was facing a tough decision moving into last night’s publication and subsequent press conference. That […]

Asia on Fire The TWD or Taiwan Dollar has scarcely featured in most FX traders’ consciousness until the past four weeks, when the NTD has roared up over 10%. The Korean Won has managed a respectable 6%, the Thai Baht and the Malaysian Ringgit 5% and the Singapore Dollar 4%. So what’s behind it? The […]

Rumours of a deal Low liquidity during the UK bank holiday didn’t shield the US Dollar from further selling pressure. Over the weekend and into Monday, rumours had been building that the US and Taiwan were nearing a trade deal. More than just a trade deal, rumour has it that Trump’s Mar-a-Lago playbook is on. […]

Oil Price Pre TT or Trump Tariffs, the oil price seesawed around but mostly reverted to its mean over a few trading sessions unless a major piece of economic, political or trade news arose. All that has gone out of the window with steady declines in session after session,  so in case you have been […]

Not an auspicious start  At the beginning of any political term, we often talk a lot about the first 100 days. It’s often something a candidate themselves is either questioned on or elects to comment on, telling the electorate what they will do if elected in their first 100 days in office. For elected candidates, the […]

British Pound Whenever one reads a headline such as Sterling at a 38 month high versus USD, the tendency is to assume that GBP is due for a hubristic fall after that particular piece of pride. However this time it might just be different with no sign that USD has turned a corner and is […]

A testing week Traded volatility continued to moderate into the end of last week. As a result, key currency pairs have begun to settle into a range, albeit one slightly wider than is typical. It has been the lack of devastating news flow regarding tariffs that has allowed an element of normalisation to emerge. The […]

UK Economic Growth 2025 The range is from 0.5% to 1.6%. Funnily enough, and not sure what conclusions one can draw from this, the four most pessimistic forecasts are all banks – Nomura, UBS, NatWest and Barclays who lead the downbeat group at 0.5%. At the other end of the scale the acronym heavy ICAEW, […]

Eastern Europe and Central Asia Between 2010 and 2019 economic growth in this large geographic area averaged 4%. According to the World Bank, that growth will decelerate to 2.5% for the next 2 years and even stripping out Russia that will still be lower at 3.3%. Inflation, weak external demand from the EU,  global uncertainty […]