SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – Did EURUSD miss the news?

Morning Brief – Did EURUSD miss the news?

Charles Porter Tue 30 May 2023

Did EURUSD miss the news?  Over the weekend, the President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives reached a much-awaited deal on the US debt ceiling. The impending constraint on debt could have forced the shutdown of government departments and precluded the US government from servicing costs and existing debts, triggering a default. The […]

Morning Brief – UK Wages

Morning Brief – UK Wages

Humphrey Percy Fri 26 May 2023

UK Wages Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday warned of the pressure on wages that are threatening to lead to a wage price spiral as the effects of inflation on the cost of living together with the 12 consecutive interest rate rises that consumers have experienced. The market has not enjoyed the poor inflation […]

Morning Brief – De Dollarization

Morning Brief – De Dollarization

Humphrey Percy Mon 22 May 2023

De Dollarization Much being written about the demise of the USD, and for the sake of getting it out there in case you missed it, Iraq has just banned the use of USD to buy houses and cars which are normally the largest ticket items for the consumer. Mainly Iraqis have until now used USD […]

Morning Brief – US Consumer Credit

Morning Brief – US Consumer Credit

Humphrey Percy Fri 19 May 2023

US Consumer Credit Back in 2000 US consumer credit stood at USD 1.6 Trillion. Clearly near zero interest rates for the past 10+ years plus easy credit conditions have lulled US consumers into a sense of borrow now repay tomorrow. Except that the repay tomorrow part seems to be getting lost with US consumer credit […]

Morning Brief – What happens if the US defaults?

Morning Brief – What happens if the US defaults?

Charles Porter Thu 18 May 2023

What happens if the US defaults?  Whilst much of the financial world is focussed upon the potential for US default, it is hard to analyse the outcome of such an unprecedented event. The answer is that until it happens, we simply don’t know exactly what the outcome would be. However, there are many likely knee-jerk […]

Morning Brief – IMF and Bank of England

Morning Brief – IMF and Bank of England

Humphrey Percy Wed 17 May 2023

IMF and Bank of England Readers will recall the poor report card that the International Monetary Fund gave the UK in March. The latest set of forecasts from the Bank of England set it at odds with the IMF: firstly no recession, instead modest +0.25% growth this year and +0.75% in the next two years. […]

Morning Brief – US Debt Ceiling Crisis

Morning Brief – US Debt Ceiling Crisis

Humphrey Percy Mon 15 May 2023

US Debt Ceiling Crisis  As we have written in the past weeks, the USA may be unable to pay its bills under the current debt ceiling limit as soon as June 1st ie just over 2 weeks away. Apart from the safe havens of Swiss Francs (CHF) and Gold, there is another area of the […]

Morning Brief – CPI passed, BOE up 

Morning Brief – CPI passed, BOE up 

Charles Porter Thu 11 May 2023

CPI passed, BOE up  US inflation data released yesterday caused volatility within the US Dollar. This was most widely observed within FX spot crosses, however, a deeper look into the forward and swap markets showed more significant price upheavals. Early on in yesterday’s European session forward points on many emerging market vs. US Dollar crosses […]

Morning Brief – Clockwork 

Morning Brief – Clockwork 

Charles Porter Tue 9 May 2023

Clockwork  In the weeks ahead expect to see continued focus upon the impending US debt ceiling. The phenomenon is something that rears its head periodically as the US government kicks the can down the narrow road of an increasingly unsustainable fiscal policy constraint. The provision of a legislative limit on the amount of debt that […]

Morning Brief – European Central Bank 

Morning Brief – European Central Bank 

Humphrey Percy Fri 5 May 2023

European Central Bank  Yesterday the ECB duly raised its interest rates by 25bps. President Lagarde maintained that the ECB was on a journey and had not yet arrived-some would, given that ECB inflation is not dropping and is stuck at 6.9%, interpret that analogy as being their firm intention to continue to raise rates given […]

Morning Brief – 5-5.25%

Morning Brief – 5-5.25%

Charles Porter Thu 4 May 2023

5-5.25% Yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision saw the Fed deliver their 10th consecutive rate hike. The May decision only saw rates raised at the central bank level by 25 basis points. Psychologically, this pushes US benchmark rates above the significant 5% level. As we wrote yesterday, raising the cost of debt servicing also adds […]

Morning Brief – US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling 

Morning Brief – US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling 

Humphrey Percy Wed 3 May 2023

US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling  Markets (so far) are remarkably sanguine about this appalling scenario for the US and therefore the global economy. President Biden and the Republican House Speaker have not discussed this issue since February-and the Speaker is currently in Jerusalem so unable to meet […]

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