SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – Pencil to pen

Morning Brief – Pencil to pen

Charles Porter Tue 13 Dec 2022

Pencil to pen As with any year ahead, 2023 has been fervently speculated over by market participants. Whilst forecasts for the forthcoming year take great priority every year, 2023 has perhaps the most divergent set of forecasts between analysts and institutions on recent record. Across asset classes and between institutions the core themes expected to […]

Morning Brief – False Illusions

Morning Brief – False Illusions

Charles Porter Tue 6 Dec 2022

False Illusions On Friday last week markets had got very exuberant over comments made by the Federal Reserve Chair the day prior. As a result of the interpretation of those comments, the US Dollar had dropped several cents to trade at its recent lows. There was a narrative that was being pieced together and justified […]

Morning Brief – Short covering

Morning Brief – Short covering

Charles Porter Thu 17 Nov 2022

Short covering   Evidence from the CME provides an interesting qualification to the CFTC positioning data that GBP investors have been watching closely. For many years now, markets have held a net short position on GBP, fluctuating from more neutral grounds through to a heavy focus upon achieving selling conviction behind the Pound at times. […]

Morning Brief – US CPI

Morning Brief – US CPI

Charles Porter Thu 10 Nov 2022

US CPI   The risk-on mood that kicked off the week has slowly deteriorated, providing a reality check for currencies including those in the EM basket and GBP. Initial optimism surrounding China’s zero-covid potential policy adjustment and the passing of two key central bank risk events last week had supported currencies that have typically suffered […]

Morning Brief – USD risk

Morning Brief – USD risk

Charles Porter Tue 8 Nov 2022

USD risk   The hawkish narrative that the Federal Reserve delivered in its latest press conference has been well covered. Jay Powell’s divergence from how the market perceived the peak of US interest rates has provided an element of support to the US Dollar. We can say with conviction that at least in the hours […]

Morning Brief – Some way to go

Morning Brief – Some way to go

Charles Porter Thu 3 Nov 2022

Some way to go   The Federal Reserve somewhat caught the market off guard last night. The US central bank’s efforts in recent months to tame inflation have been nothing short of extraordinary. Late out of the blocks, the Federal Reserve produced last night its fourth consecutive interest rate hike of 0.75%. These enormous, oversized […]

Morning Brief – A return to energy

Morning Brief – A return to energy

Charles Porter Thu 6 Oct 2022

A return to energy   First the context of yesterday’s trading session: Thanks to some data in the United States showing a more robust backdrop than may have been expected, positions that existed across global markets speculating that the Federal Reserve would have to take its foot off the pedal became increasingly untenable. There was […]

Morning Brief – Reserved about Dollars

Morning Brief – Reserved about Dollars

SGM-FX Thu 8 Sep 2022

Reserved about Dollars   Russian President Vladimir Putin has been taking a tough line on the Dollar. He has been claiming that western foreign policy, sharped in no small part by the United States, is to blame for the rising commodity and Dollar prices globally. Even citing recent IMF figures for the Dollarisation of global […]

Morning Brief – Full Employment

Morning Brief – Full Employment

SGM-FX Fri 26 Aug 2022

Full Employment   The textbook definition of full employment has an unemployment rate of 4.5%, so for Fed Chair Jerome Powell with US unemployment rate at a 50 year low of 3.5%, he will inevitably both say and signal things that will spoil the party spirit when he gets to his feet at 1500hrs London […]

Morning Brief – Peak vs Post: the Atlantic divide

Morning Brief – Peak vs Post: the Atlantic divide

SGM-FX Tue 23 Aug 2022

Peak vs Post: the Atlantic divide   For the last few months markets have been decimated by volatility across most of the globe as authorities took aim at their mutual enemy: inflation. Whilst this has created hugely destructive dynamics across markets and still created winners and losers, there was at least one thing keeping some […]

Morning Brief – Mountain or Molehill

Morning Brief – Mountain or Molehill

SGM-FX Tue 2 Aug 2022

Mountain or Molehill   Grab an economics textbook and I bet it’ll tell you that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of nil or negative economic growth. It’s such an old and entrenched definition that to be honest I’m not even sure who came up with it in the first place. The one […]

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Morning Brief – US Dollar

SGM-FX Mon 25 Jul 2022

US Dollar   Before wading through acres of analyst reports and newsprint about where the mighty USD is headed in the next few months, it is worth in the first place thinking about why the USD is strong. The answer can be distilled down into 3 main reasons which are as follows: 1. Growth potential: […]

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