Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.
Bank of England As expected the BoE cut interest rates by 25bps yesterday. So far so good but then the BoE departed from the script. Flat economic growth up until the end of 2024 was less of a surprise but then a new forecast for inflation +3.7% and 2025 economic growth slashed from 1.5% to […]
Not another headline Markets have either grown complacent or are reading beyond Trump’s headline statements. Over the past week markets have been presented with the challenge of fresh tariffs on China with retaliatory tariffs on the US also due to come into force in just under a week. In addition to that they have the […]
German Election With just 18 days to go to the German election, tensions are building. The centre right CDU whose leader Friedrich Merz is likely to be the next Chancellor is under fire for proposing a tougher immigration policy. That says his critics is similar to the far right AFD and verboten given the antipathy […]
Time to get a Thesaurus Removing tariffs just as quickly as President Trump thought to impose them is surely removing any elegance associated with Trump’s ‘favourite word in the dictionary’. On second thoughts, there likely never was any. In the two weeks that have passed since the President’s inauguration the tariff story goes something like […]
Harmful, Toxic, Biased and Insecure Well it took less than one week: after the excitement that met the DeepSeek AI application, came the fight back, the negative press and the correct questioning as to whether DeepSeek is safe. Well surprise surprise, it does not tolerate or even answer questions prejudicial to China but there are […]
Mission Driven ECB President Christine Lagarde faced some polite but firm questions in the post 25bp interest rate cut presser yesterday afternoon. Given that Germany, France and Ireland which are all on the EU naughty step have the worst Eurozone economic performances and Eurozone inflation is 2.4% or 4% for services inflation versus GDP growth […]
ECB Up Next Despite traders continuing to keep a keen eye on the actions of President Trump, the European economy will begin to command attention for the remainder of this week. Having taken a breather on his squabble with Columbia over the weekend, the newly inaugurated President’s attention will turn to Congress. Less signing, more […]
Competitiveness Compass In case it has passed you by, today is the day or Der Tag when the EU will publish its Competitiveness Compass. Before you reach for your Thesaurus to work out what the latest manifestation of the EU mangling the English language has in store for all of us, this is the twofold […]
Reform Britain’s newest party is now the top polling party at 26%, 1 point ahead of the Conservatives and 4 points ahead of Labour. This is big news and perhaps explains why even Conservatives with strong nerves are beginning to wonder if the fortunes of the Conservatives might best be joined with Reform rather than […]
Dollar Correction The infamous grab, hold, pull repeat handshake of President Trump almost sent several tumbling down during his inauguration at the US Capitol yesterday. Meanwhile, the actions and rhetoric surrounding his inauguration categorically did send the US Dollar lower following weeks of strong appreciation. Volatility had been expected moving into Trump’s inauguration yesterday. Whilst […]
UK Growth Further worries this weekend for UK Chancellor Reeves as it emerges that if her plans were based on up to date forecasts rather than UK official growth projections not only would her numbers not add up but the UK would be faced with a GBP 30 billion hole in the budget. While inflation […]
Germany In just 6 weeks Germany will vote and while Chancellor Scholz thinks that he can win, most others are equally convinced that he cannot based on his economic record alone that has seen the German economy contract by 0.3% in 2023 and by an estimated 0.2% in 2024. That on top of his ability […]
Markets In Reverse – Inflation to the Rescue Particularly in the case of the beleaguered GB Pound, it may be time to do away with the textbook. Instead of attracting further demand as UK yields have risen, GBP has registered one of its worst starts to a year on record. It is a narrative of […]