SGM-FX insights

Sell first, question later The jury is still out on whether the initial “sell everything” reaction to a sudden increase in geopolitical risk has concluded. Certainly, some volatility remains which serves as an indication that trading conditions have not calmed whilst markets continue to question how this chapter of US military intervention ends. Emerging markets […]

US Dollar One question at least has been answered by the crisis in the Gulf: USD is still the safe haven currency of choice. The Dollar Index rose 1% on Monday and again yesterday, reflecting the attributes of the Dollar market which as we have recently written are not enjoyed by other potential rival currencies such […]

Return to geopolitics The decision from the US to wage war on Iran has, of course, taken its toll on markets. The obvious move in such an environment from investors is to de-risk. That decision carries the tell-tale impacts in FX of boosting the Dollar’s value, putting EM under pressure, and causing a flood of […]

Gold With Spot Gold at USD 5392, Friday saw not one but two US banks break cover and forecast that the price would reach USD 6000 by year end 2026. Indeed, JP Morgan has predicted it will reach USD 6300 a further 20% lurch up from here. Apart from Central Bank buying, the most cited […]

Zeitendwende This is how German politicians describe Germany’s great turning point in its defence policy since the time of the invasion of Ukraine. Without any sense of irony (which is of course best steered clear of in German), the decision has been made to upgrade Germany’s drone capability by investing EUR 536 million in two […]

Fade America There have been times during Trump’s second term that have had markets and financial commentators alike calling for an era of ‘sell-America’. Sell-America is the notion describing a scenario in which investor sentiment sours towards the US so much so that valuations across US assets decline. This is a unique scenario because many […]

Canada One of the consequences of what Iran recently described as the unpredictability of President Trump is that PM Mark Carney of Canada has this week embarked on a charm offensive to India,  Australia, and Japan. Just another visit? On the contrary, Canada has had a fractious relationship with India and a real froideur existed […]

How do we really feel about tariffs? As we wrote yesterday, financial news outlets erupted as if it were Christmas come early upon the initial suggestions that the Supreme Court would likely find Trump’s tariffs contrary to law. Upon the realisation later on during the US session that this expectation had become reality, headlines doubled […]

US Markets As we settled into the weekend USD was enjoying a fourth day of strengthening, US GDP came in at 1.4% instead of the 3% expected by analysts and US inflation at 2.4% all added up to just a normal Friday in US markets. Then the Supreme Court decision came in deeming POTUS’ tariffs […]

Oil On the back of rising tensions in the Gulf region due to the likelihood of a US strike or even a full out attack on Iran, Brent oil prices went back through USD 70 yesterday. That would of course lead to supply disruption and escalating prices. As night follows day for the same US-Iran […]

An upset in the minutes Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting were published yesterday evening. As you may tell from the market reaction, the contents of such minutes were far from in line with market consensus. If you cast your mind back to January 28th, the FOMC voted 10-2 to keep rates on hold. […]

Muscular EUR A group of the larger EU countries have come to the realisation that talking about EUR becoming a global currency needs to be translated into more concrete actions with an integrated EU capital market and increased EU borrowing as being the two key measures. This realisation has been amplified by the successive US […]