Daily Brief – Stop Press

Stop Press

Hugely positive economic news for UK plc this morning with the announcement that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been seconded to the European Central Bank for a minimum of 3 years which will extend beyond the term of the current Government. This is all part of the imaginative Competence in Government (UK) Job Swap Scheme, which will see the ECB ‘s Isabel Schnabel take over the UK Treasury and move into Number 11 Downing Street effective today. Isabel Schnabel apart from having impeccable economic credentials and a proven genuine CV is regarded as the leading ECB inflation hawk and while on the way to Frankfurt Airport, commented: “ What the UK needs is financial discipline, a simplified tax structure and a decent dose of economic reality.” PM Keir Starmer was not available for comment being in Florida, USA on Spring Break.

GBP/USD 1.3229.

Investment Horizon

Yesterday we attended the most recent Deutsche Bank Investor Call presented by CIO Christian Nolting. The most noteworthy development since the previous such call was the marked change in rhetoric with a major change to the Base Case: the previous time horizon was for a cessation of hostilities within 1-2 weeks and that has now stretched out to 2-3 months. Wisely Christian Nolting swerved forecasting the price of Oil contenting himself with saying that outside their base case, Oil will either go much higher or will fall back to below USD 100. While there was some less than startling equity suggestions for good defensive asset allocation, we found the case for Gold and Silver to be more compelling. Gold having reached USD 5602 is now trading between USD 4,100 and 4500 whereas Silver reached USD 121 before falling 50% to USD 61 and now stands at USD 72. Both, irrespective of what transpires next look to have found a base level. However, the conclusion that USD remains the best safe haven, store of value and most likely to appreciate currency – still.

EUR/USD 1.1543.

Japanese Yen

With USD/JPY having broken through 160 yesterday, it is worth parsing the sayings of Finance Minister Satuki Katayama given Japan’s historic intervention when the Yen falls through levels that the Bank of Japan deem to be unacceptable. Ms Katayama started off by branding the latest fall as speculative before going on to pledge her readiness to respond “on all fronts.” While Japan is one of the most negatively affected countries by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there may be no alternative despite falling inflation in Japan for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Both in the immediate future and looking beyond to the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz a good case for the Japanese yen appreciating can be constructed.

EUR/JPY 183.44.

Recycling Rubbish

We did wonder whether it was part of the April 1 fun and games, but it turns out that this is a genuine UK Government initiative to simplify recycling rules for rubbish in England as the men and women with white clipboards have reported that recycling rates have fallen to 44% in England versus 57% in Wales. New “simpler recycling requirements” came into effect yesterday which require councils in England to provide separate collections for food and garden waste, paper and card, all other dry recyclable materials including glass, metal, plastic and cartons, and lastly non-recyclable waste. The new rules will apply to all households including flats. Our experience is that many flat dwellers in our tower block struggle to place their rubbish in the large bins provided let alone segregate their rubbish..

GBP/EUR 1.1446.

Wild Thing

OK it was 60 years ago today but this is indeed the anniversary of the momentous day when The Troggs having an extra 45 minutes of free studio time in West London’s Olympic Studios, used it to record this hardy annual if not perennial foot stomper, beloved of anyone with a pulse over the age of well, let’s just say it’s a clarion call for more mature pop fans including those proponents of the Dad Dance evident at any celebration involving music and a dance floor.

Wild thing, you make my heart sing
You make everything groovy, wild thing
Wild thing, I think I love you
But I wanna know for sure
Come on and hold me tight
I love you

Wild thing, you make my heart sing
You make everything groovy
Wild thing

Wild thing, I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
Come on and hold me tight
You move me

Wild thing, you make my heart sing
You make everything groovy, wild thing
C’mon, c’mon, wild thing
Check it, check it, wild thing

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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