SGM-FX insights

Oil   Prices receded on the back of the easing of tensions in the Gulf with WTI dipping just below $60 which represents a drop of 6% since the previous Friday when the U.S. drone strike killed  General Solaimani. As trailed earlier in the week, despite there remaining tensions on the back of that, there […]

Welcome back to those of you starting 2020 today   You haven’t missed a great deal in the past 8 trading sessions starting 23-12-19. Markets have been thin and most movement was around the US military action in the Gulf early on Friday. Generally the USD is net net weaker since 23-12-19 having been weaker […]

All or Nothing:   Today we embark upon the first trading day of 2020 following a busy but ultimately unremarkable year for foreign exchange markets. Despite general elections, impeachment and monetary chaos clocks haven’t stopped ticking and markets have continued to function. One of the best performing currencies this year has been the newly crowned […]

Currency Markets   Euro on the rise sending the USD lower and GBP higher as short positions were unwound ahead of year end which together with thin liquidity has exacerbated what would normally have been a smaller set of moves.     China Demographics   Ages: 0-14 yrs 17%; 15-24 yrs 12%; 25-54 yrs 48% […]

Yesterday in World Currency markets   The Swedish Central Bank, the Rijsbank became the first Central Bank to raise rates…… to zero %.. after 5 years at minus. The Swedish Crown (SKR) dutifully rose marginally versus the USD. Norges Bank the Norwegian Central Bank kept its powder dry and kept rates on hold-so no change […]

US, Mexico, Canada trade pact   News in last night that a deal has been done and it will be signed on Tuesday next week. Glossing over last week’s NATO spat, POTUS spoke to Canada’s Justin Trudeau and neatly just as the increased tariffs are due to be imposed next week, a rabbit has been […]

German bottom?   Germany narrowly avoided recession thanks to data last week that showed third quarter growth at 0.1%. Congratulations are in order then; the driver of Eurozone growth and manufacturing export champion is back up and running! Hold on, perhaps we should wait a moment before putting the Riesling on ice.    If you […]

Bank of England   The Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of leaving rates on hold at 0.75% yesterday. Nothing surprising in that, but what was unexpected were the two votes in favour of cutting rates by 0.25% to reflect the lack of growth expectations globally. Combined with the impact of the ongoing Brexit uncertainty […]

Gale force 12   Phraseology meets foreign exchange part two – ‘any port in a storm’. This time I’m on side, I would indeed rather be in any port in a storm than, as the phrase assumes, out at sea staring down a Beaufort scale-rattling wind. But, once again, it’s got limitations largely created by […]

Thrown under the bus   Do you remember when Boris Johnson told the world that he likes to build models of busses in his spare time? The ‘confession’ offered during the televised interview with talkRADIO was, the daily mail conjectured, a PR spin to draw attention away from the referendum red bus that brandished the […]

Borderline   The best way to solve a problem in politics, almost without exception, is to present the simplest form of the idea possible to maximise the expectation of success that each voter carries. What’s not a particularly grand idea in most scenarios, and certainly not when attempting to do something quickly, is to redefine […]

China and Hong Kong: enigma   The incredibly successful statistics from China throw out a big question of which more below. Between 1952 and 2018 GDP averaged 8.1%. Life expectancy has risen from 35 in 1949 to 77 today. 770M people have been taken out of poverty since 1978. More than $2 trillion has entered […]