SGM-FX insights

One down, two to go Markets took the UK budget in their stride yesterday. Moderate GBP buying left major crosses in a largely healthy state during the afternoon session. Amongst the G10 FX space, when measured against the US Dollar, the Pound has been the best performing currency so far this year. Of course, reversing […]

China At this week’s National People’s Congress, the 2024 economic targets for the People’s Republic of China were announced. Last year GDP growth officially came in at 5.2% but outside China estimates put it at 1-2%; however while it was acknowledged this week that there had been some issues with the Chinese economy in 2023, […]

Money matters Tomorrow is the day that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Spring budget to the House of Commons. He has been keen to avoid the mistakes of his short-tenured predecessor. Whilst the infamous mini budget was notable mostly for its baseless largesse in favour of the British public and business, it was also […]

Cocoa The world’s cocoa crop available for consumption has shrunk by 11% in the past year as a result of a combination of poor weather and supply disruption. The move in the NY ICE Cocoa contract is a clear reflection of what that means in real world terms: in March 2023 Cocoa stood at $2586 […]

UK Economy Green shoots or maybe early indications that the UK economy may be showing some signs of life in Q1 2024: according to the Bank of England home finance approvals have risen from 51,500 in December to 55,200 in January. Also cash strapped brits have put GBP1.9 billion more on credit card and finance […]

Data resumes The start of this week was particularly data light. With most major pairs still trading within recent ranges, markets are missing a catalyst in inject volatility. That may be a welcome scenario but with the data calendar becoming increasingly dense over the coming trading sessions, let’s take a look at some potential risks. […]

Oil With further Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and freight rates pushed higher by the continuing Israel-Hamas war, unsurprisingly oil prices having risen on Monday continued to push upwards yesterday. The only thing keeping them from rising further is the prospect of President Biden’s sponsored ceasefire rumoured to take effect next Monday.Brent $ 82.70 […]

It’s okay, Truss me. On Wednesday next week Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the UK Spring budget. We are in the final straight with significant speculation over the shape of the budget taking place. The Treasury and OBR will have scrutinised the latest forecasts and the final budget will soon be cast in stone. Despite […]

British Pound While UK business optimism is at a 2 year high, UK consumer confidence fell in February for the first time since October. However GBP had a better week last week and the Pound performed well.GBP/EUR 1.1715 Germany The word most associated with the German political establishment for many years has been consensus. Until […]

US Tariffs on Chinese Imports Recently we wrote about how Mexico has become the Number One trade partner for the USA. It now transpires that Mexico may have had what is known as a little assist with their numbers: the statistics for the number of 20 foot shipping containers for the first three Quarters of […]

Battle of the Minutes Overnight it was the minutes from the prior Fed meeting that were scrutinised. Immediately in its shadow will be the ECB’s minutes, due to be released early this afternoon. The Fed has been highly successful this month in dragging an over-zealous bond market back onto its track. The ECB by contrast […]

British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]