Daily Brief – Dire Straits

Dire Straits

A handy ready reckoner for the major straits of the world that see 70% of the global oil trade pass through them: Malacca, Bass, Singapore, Gibraltar, Magellan, Hormuz, Bering, and Bosphorus. It may not add much knowledge to those who have a good grasp of economic geography but it does serve to remind one following the very different event with the Panama flagged Evergreen container ship blocking the Suez Canal for 6 days in March 2021 that global trade is vulnerable to geography when it comes to manmade events – both accidental and deliberate. Evergreen was due to strong winds, while the Hormuz closure is due rather more to the winds of war…

EUR/USD 1.1730.

Hanta Virus

The first thing is that one would have to be very unlucky to contract Hanta Virus since it is very unlikely to be transmitted between humans and let’s not go into how it is transmitted via rats but suffice to say that is equally unlikely. Currently, there are 9 people suffering from it which is remarkable given the sheer amount of news footage dedicated to reporting the health or otherwise of passengers who were on the Spanish cruise ship MV Hontius. The incubation period is 6 weeks so it may be that further people display symptoms. Hanta Virus is a newish virus being detected for the first time in 1976 near the Hantan River in South Korea and is rare but present in Central and North Asia and also South America where it is known as the Andes virus and last broke out in Argentina in 2018-2019. Whatever one may think of WHO or the World Health Organisation that describes the risk of contracting the virus as very low, it causes death in between 1% and 15% of sufferers in Europe and Asia, so needs to be viewed proportionately in terms of both infection and recovery.

GBP/USD 1.3518.

ITA Airways

For those readers who have experienced the normally reliable ITA Airways that operates for example between London City Airport and Milan, it may make little difference since ITA is already an excellent alternative to British Airways on that route. However, the news yesterday that Lufthansa has upped its 41% stake taken in January 2025 and upped it to 90% in the Italian airline should further bolster confidence in it.

EUR/JPY 185.00.

Edinburgh

In the Quartermile district in Edinburgh on the site of what was the Royal Infirmary which lies between the Old Town and The Meadows a number of modern office buildings and residences have sprung up. Unlike buildings in most areas of Scotland, which are purchased by Scots, the Quartermile has seen 30% of all buildings being bought by Malaysians, Honk Kong Chinese, and Singaporeans as well as people from Grand Cayman and Russia. Before the SNP gets carried away thinking it’s down to them, while some purchasers do fall into the category of international property investors, most are for student accommodation.

EUR/GBP 0.8677.

Hand on Your Heart

This day in 1989 Australian pop princess Kylie Minogue was at Number 1 with this number written by what sounds like a firm of lawyers but is of course one of the most successful combos in pop impresario and songwriting history: Stock, Aitken, and Waterman. A fitting inclusion some may think for Sir Keir Starmer to include in the playlist at his leaving party when he says goodbye to his Labour Party colleagues.

Put your hand on your heart and tell me
That we’re through, oh-oh, oh-oh

Put your hand on your heart
Hand on your heart

Well, it’s one thing to fall in love
But another to make it last
I thought that we were just beginning
And now you say we’re in the past, oh-oh

Look me in the eye and tell me
We are really through

You know, it’s one thing to say you love me
But another to mean it from the heart
And if you don’t intend to see it through
Why did we ever start? Whoa-oh

I want to hear you tell me
You don’t want my love

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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