SGM-FX insights

Data returns A relatively data light week still managed to create some surprises within markets. Due to developments in the macro economy, we have highlighted how investors are more data-reliant than ever. This has been largely down to the potential for change at central banks with the outlook for future rate adjustments still being portrayed […]

US Consumer Spending Despite 525 basis points of cumulative rises in just over 18 months by the Federal Reserve, the US consumer has carried on spending. Doubtless this will be on the minds of those policy makers gathered at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend as they debate just when to stop the rate rises before […]

Race to the bottom The lack of volatility within some key currency pairs was reaching concerning levels. The paralysis of pairs including GBPEUR meant that intraday volatility was almost negligible, with only minute and seemingly controlled fluctuations in the pair to observe. Despite that low volatility environment having set in for several months now, the […]

UK Borrowing At GBP 2.58 trillion the UK’s borrowing represents 99% of UK GDP. It seems somewhat perverse therefore for newspapers to speculate about pre election tax cut potential. Apart from crushing inflation and increasing productivity, the reduction of the colossal amount of UK Government debt is now assuming the top priority for a fiscally […]

Stressing the forecasts If you’ve been following market commentary you’ll have noticed the theme of buying fixed income dominating the narrative. This theme refers to investors and institutions alike calling time on the majority of the hiking cycle and starting to look at locking in high yields across the curve. With many 10-year yields still […]

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]

Chinese Yuan Renminbi Chinese banks have been selling USD and buying CNY in London and New York in the past two days to support CNY at the behest of the People’s Bank of China. While not immediately apparent that it was having much of an effect on CNY given the easy money market conditions with […]

Data Update: UK Inflation Mixed messages for the UK macro economy were received once again yesterday. As the July inflation figures were released, it was clear that there wasn’t going to be one decisive narrative that would emerge as to whether the reading was supportive or destructive to the view that inflation is cooling in the […]

Zhongrong International Trust ZIT is one of China’s leading wealth management company and in case you have not yet picked up the news, it has missed payouts on some of its high yield products. This is causing worries for the health of the overall Chinese fund management industry and understandably the fear of contagion given […]

Intervention in the air Over the past 24 hours there has been a lot of talk of intervention and currency management within the market. Besides the Yen whose yield curve control debate has been dominating headlines for some time now, Argentina and Russia are in focus for the potential to take an active management role […]

Poland While some countries (the UK for example) agonise over the wording of a referendum question often ending up with a bland and neutral sentence, Poland has no such inhibitions. It is worth repeating the government’s imminent proposed question in full: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East […]

US Inflation A collective global sigh of relief to see US inflation rise just 0.2% in the month of July and on a year on year basis by 3.2% in the year to July. At the same time there were 187000 new jobs created in July which is the second smallest rise since December 2020. […]