Welcome back to those of you starting 2020 today
You haven’t missed a great deal in the past 8 trading sessions starting 23-12-19. Markets have been thin and most movement was around the US military action in the Gulf early on Friday. Generally the USD is net net weaker since 23-12-19 having been weaker still until Friday when it strengthened half a cent against both EUR and GBP. Stock markets are little changed. Oil has firmed but has an implicit cap on it given the markets’ view that OPEC will not be sufficiently in accord to limit supply in turn to generate higher prices.
BUT….if you think that we are going to have an uneventful Q1, turn your attention to the political arena! Markets have not fully priced in the risks and consequences of the potential out turns of the political events across the world from Australia to Hong Kong to India to the Gulf to Europe to the USA in the last two weeks.
Remember that saying: If you remember the 60’s, you really weren’t there?
Well the same might well be said of Machilipatnam on the Coromandel coast of India in the 70’s…the 1670’s! Yes it was 1673 when Thomas Bowrey of the East India Company landed at Machilipatnam and began trading. After a tough day at the negotiating table, he was encouraged to join the local merchants in a few rounds of bangha or what is better known today as marijuana. While interested in its soporific properties and its potential medicinal application, Bowrey was most intrigued in the possibility of turning bangha into a global commodity. If ever a pothead was ahead of his time, Thomas Bowrey was it, given that it took a further 300 years for bangha to become legal and commoditised and global!
Relevant? The 1920’s were named the Roaring Twenties
So as you take down your Christmas decorations, consider (briefly) going to the gym as a new year resolution and head off to the pub, all here at SGM-FX wish you every success on both a business and a personal level and a very Happy New Year!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Japanese Yen With JPY at a new 34 year low versus EUR, the market is set for an ambush by the Bank of Japan if it acts today at the end of their Policy Meeting to support the Yen. The reason that the market is susceptible is because it has convinced itself that the BoJ […]
Too soon to call USD lower Those following the US Dollar’s performance in the markets would have noted a recent downturn accelerating as this week has progressed. There have been two factors driving this sell-off but it is far from certain that either may endure long enough to push the Dollar index back to its […]
Milan, Italy The City of Milan has a late night noise problem and so it has acted unilaterally to resolve it-Italian style. A ban on the sale of take away food including ice cream and pizza after midnight is being imposed to protect the “peace and health of residents.” Here in the UK late night […]