Having sat in countless lectures by the people who quite literally wrote the book on tactical voting and collective action, I can assure you that academia doesn’t have the answers to voting outcomes especially under circumstances of manipulated voting. It’s not failings on their part, rather it’s the entropic nature of humans – we just can’t accurately predict what voters will do.
Yesterday brought further UK headlines about voting alliances and tactical voting. Nigel Farage, leader of his newly formed Brexit Party, former UKIP leader and notable UK MEP, announced yesterday a no-contest alliance with the Tory party in constituencies in which they already hold representation. That equates to 317 electoral seats that the conservatives won’t face a dilution of their vote share as a result of contestation from the clear-cut single-issue harder-line Brexit Party. The alliance is huge for Johnson’s electoral prospects as in large parts of his core seats his candidates will now frequently represent the only leave-focussed party increasing exponentially the share of the Eurosceptic vote that Johnson is counting on.
The Pound liked the news yesterday morning during Farage’s press conference. The improvement in prospects for a governmental majority – something the UK has only enjoyed for three years in the last decade – saw investors flock towards the Pound as political uncertainly seemed to fade slightly. Countless tactical voting websites also entered conversations concerning political wizardry. Notably, the new website by Gina Miller – a constant thorn in the government’s side – who offers members of the public advise on who they should vote for to avoid a Conservative Johnson government once again and secure a second referendum.
Having studied the site, the crudeness of its algorithms attests to the complexity of organising political outcomes – at least I’ll put it down to this rather than calling the website and logic under-baked. The logic is simple, take the voting outcome of your constituency in the last election averaged with any polling data and suggest that you vote for the most successful non-Conservative; DUP; Brexit; UKIP party. Not exactly a work of genius or art, the election would be far more meaningful and interesting if people vote for their preferred candidate rather than (fail to) manipulate the outcome with tactical voting. GBP lost some of its momentum during the US session having found resistance at 1.29 earlier during European trading.
A flare up in Hong Kong protests yesterday with new viral videos and police shootings cast a risk-off tone in markets yesterday with cyclical currencies and emerging market currencies losing ground. Speculative bets continue to wreak havoc in the HKD forward market whilst the spot peg still holds firm and even drifted lower in its fixed range.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter