SGM-FX insights

Autumn Statement Trailing some prospective budget measures ahead of the UK Budget is as old as well, the UK Budget. Chancellor Reeves would do well to look up the TB/GB(Tony Blair/Gordon Brown) playbook from 1997-2008 which was a masterclass in the dangle, the tease and the test. Chancellor Reeves a good 5 weeks ahead of her […]

Inflation’s peak? Yesterday’s publication of the latest UK inflation report will be welcomed by households and the government alike. The report released prior to the market open yesterday showed UK inflation to September remained stable month-on-month. That might not sound like a whole lot at face value, but it is in fact critical that headline […]

UK Government Borrowing Borrowing for September was reported yesterday by the Office of national Statistics or ONS to be GBP 20.2 billion, up by GBP 1.6 billion from the same month in 2024. What that means is that public spending exceeded tax income by that amount. That takes borrowing for the first 6 months of […]

A testing week Markets so far have largely endured the admonitions coming from significant figures within the world of finance. The Bank of England’s own Andrew Bailey’s warnings of the risks of a market crash were uncommon for an MPC chair and initially took markets aback. Shortly thereafter, prominent figures warned of a pre-Halloween fright […]

World’s wealthiest non USA person That title belongs of course to the suave 76 year old Frenchman Bernard Arnault whose LVMH shares have suffered of late on the back of France’s economic and political woes combined with POTUS’ tariffs that had walloped the outlook for French luxury goods in the US market. On Wednesday of […]

UK Growth To refresh your memories, UK Growth fell 0.1% in July and the hope or more accurately the expectation was that July was an aberration which would be rectified when the men with the clipboards reported on UK Growth for August. In the case of Chancellor Reeves, that expectation was rather more of a prayer […]

A rising tide lifts all boats As the Dollar continues to perform lacklustre oscillations, key pairs remain rangebound. The trend so far this week has been for a mildly weaker Dollar. Given that the Dollar is considered the primary counterparty for most currencies, this creates a rising tide effect across the rest of the market. […]

China and the USA What prompted POTUS to escalate the trade war last week? Before answering that, it is worth a refresh on the current state of play: US tariffs on China average 58% and China on the US 33%, and the next cliffhanger date is November 10, after which the current threat is for […]

Calling time on Swissy Switzerland’s Franc may be destined to faulter under its own weight. Despite rock bottom interest rates, the Swiss Franc has been a significant beneficiary of the post-Covid and Trump2 world. EURCHF, a key barometer of European risk, shows some 20-cents worth of Swiss rally post-Covid. The pair has dropped from well […]

Friday night US Markets There was an element of the US stock market temporarily running out of oxygen at the heady heights that it had reached and looking for an excuse to take profits/sell. That excuse was provided in spades by POTUS who pronounced that he would implement much higher tariffs against China. That was […]

US Dollar A further lurch upwards for USD yesterday morning as French politics affected the EUR and the prospect of Japan’s first female Prime Minister as well as the accompanying uncertainty weaken JPY. GBP also feeling the effects of that strong USD. The USD/JPY at 152.80 also in uncomfortable territory for Japan. EUR/JPY 177.41. China Youth […]

A look ahead The UK Pound continues to be influenced by the gilt market and fiscal concerns. Sterling has been a very expensive short this year, contributing to its relative outperformance. In fact, the few episodes of sustained weakness we have seen tended to have either coincided with a global risk-off turn or a sharp […]