SGM-FX insights

Centre for Policies Studies This UK think tank has had a good amount of egg on its corporate visage this week due to leader of Reform Nigel Farage using one of the CPFS’ own statistics when he made a speech saying that GBP234 billion could be saved by excluding migrants from benefits. As emotive and […]

The other side of the carry trade  Markets remain enamoured with the carry trade. The summer slump in volatility continues to endure and amongst the environment of falling G10 rates, it is the higher yielding emerging market and commodity currencies that are seeking out bids. It is easy to see those high yielding currencies that […]

iPhone 17 In the last few days there have been quite a few posts about how many days work it takes to earn enough to buy an iPhone17 across the countries of the world with the subtext that life is just not fair. Broadly, Western Europe is quickest and Africa is longest. Rather than dwell on […]

UK Quantitative Tightening It’s hard enough making tough calls on whether to stick to a GBP100 billion bond selling program or not when debating with fellow members of the Monetary Policy Committee, but for Governor Bailey things have got a lot trickier with not 1 but no less than 4 ex MPC members calling for […]

An orderly start Last night the Fed delivered on the widely expected 25-basis point cut to the Fed funds rate. The governing council presented a surprisingly united front with only one descending vote for an immediate 0.5% cut to benchmark rates. This came from newly appointed Stephen Miran whose name you may recognise from the […]

British Pound Despite the efforts of the press to write the story that UK PM SirKeir is on his last legs, Sterling on a 2 month high is unruffled so is not taking that story seriously. Damning with the headline “Lack of Replacement Options Keeps Starmer Safe-For Now” was Bloomberg yesterday which is not exactly […]

Waiting for the Fed Mixed messages have been emerging ahead of tomorrow’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Here’s a reminder of the rollercoaster that left the Fed’s September decision as one of its move important post-Covid meetings. In the face of cooling inflation, the Fed begins a relatively aggressive interest rate cutting cycle, […]

UK Growth Normally when UK Government figures come in exactly in line with forecasts it is a matter for self congratulation among economists and last week’s July Growth figures were no exception: the expectation was for Zero growth and indeed growth for the UK economy in July was Zero. There is a snag here: apart […]

France Beyond its political woes, which were somewhat mitigated by the appointment of President Macron’s latest PM on Wednesday, France is looking down the barrel of a likely credit downgrade that will see it losing its AA status. This will further constrain growth as well as increase its cost of borrowing. Just to round things […]

48 Hours There has been a noticeable shift in geopolitical risk this week. So how, baring a mild slip lower in EURCHF, have FX markets remained quite so flat? Sure, there have been some contained intraday spikes in some commodity prices but ultimately those legs higher have been thwarted, often in the very same trading […]

O Canada With much of the world’s North American focus on the USA rather than Canada, it is worth taking a look at what has been happening in the past few months in Canada. Government initiatives have been directed towards mitigating the effects of the US tariffs including new strategic response funds and extra loan […]

Next! The outcome of the Parliamentary debate in France yesterday leaves the nation in political limbo as its Prime Minister François Bayrou is ousted. The vote yesterday was on the motion that the French Parliament held no confidence in the government’s 2026 budget. As expected, they don’t. Many prominent voices in the market suggested that […]