SGM-FX insights

Final Trading Day of 2024 With Christmas Eve now upon us, markets will be expecting a quieter day than they received four years ago. On this day in 2020, having locked down the UK and ‘cancelled Christmas’, Boris Johnson announced the completion of a post-Brexit trade deal with just a handful of days until the […]

If you are reading this, you might be contemplating doing some FX business in the Twixtmas period- SGM-FX is open 30+31 December and ready to help. Equities, British Pound, Gold and Oil Morgan Stanley sprinkled some less than sparkling seasonal cheer over the weekend on US equity price direction by saying that due to current […]

If you are reading this, you might be contemplating doing some FX business in the Twixtmas period- SGM-FX is open 27+30+31 December and ready to help. US Dollar As we approach 2025 it is still a USD story in currency markets with just 35bps of interest rate cuts in the USA pencilled in for the […]

Inter-Americas divide With Christmas Eve now upon us, markets will be expecting a quieter day than they received four years ago. On this day in 2020, having locked down the UK and ‘cancelled Christmas’, Boris Johnson announced the completion of a post-Brexit trade deal with just a handful of days until the end of the […]

Euro Markets are currently pricing in four 25bp rate cuts for 2025 in the EU from 3% to 2% but some analysts are now predicting that rates may go as low as 1.5%. What that means is that EUR will remain weak and allow buyers of EUR to lock in the best levels for years.  […]

British Pound With GBP if not all at sea but wallowing against the crashing waves of USD strength, it is a tale of two cities for beleaguered Brits: GBP/USD dipping below the previous floor of 1.2600 but versus EUR GBP still looking firm due to the apparent divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European […]

That’s going to leave a mark Overnight the Federal Reserve published its latest monetary policy decision. The relentless appreciation of the Dollar lately has been driven by the combined narratives of a soft landing, US economic exceptionalism, the forthcoming Trump presidency and the belief the Fed may have to moderate its easing cycle accordingly. The […]

Germany Gloomy Germans is not an entirely unknown phenomenon for those of us who have toiled in Finanzplatz Deutschland or the Financial Marketplace of Germany which primarily encompasses Frankfurt, Berlin, Dusseldorf and Hamburg. Unfortunately the ZEW German Research Institute are upholding that less than noble tradition in their Economic Sentiment Indicator report that was released […]

(No) confidence neighbours The vote of no confidence that brought Michel Barnier’s French parliament to the ground is only just in the rear-view mirror. Yesterday, Olaf Scholz’s coalition faced a similar vote paving the way to national elections in Germany. At the same time as we have been commenting upon the economic malaise that has […]

Gold and Oil Gold is still firm at USD 2716 but flat whereas oil is perky with Brent at USD 73.22. The reason oil is firmer despite the hopefully de-escalating Middle East situation is that there is hope being injected into the price by the Chinese economic stimulus and the hope that the expected imminent […]

2024 Global Economy Like much else in the dismal science of economics the 80/20 rule applies to the global economy with the G20+ BRICS economies accounting for 80% of the pie and the rest of the world making up 20%. When it comes to the G20 the G7 countries make up 41% and the 5 […]

Tapering As the week has progressed and today’s ECB decision moves into focus, European rates have been tapering in on the 25-basis point cut consensus scenario. Less than a 5% chance of an outsized 50-basis point cut remained priced into overnight rates as of market open this morning. This adjustment will limit any potential Euro […]