Daily Brief – Equities, British Pound, Gold and Oil

If you are reading this, you might be contemplating doing some FX business in the Twixtmas period- SGM-FX is open 30+31 December and ready to help.

Equities, British Pound, Gold and Oil

Morgan Stanley sprinkled some less than sparkling seasonal cheer over the weekend on US equity price direction by saying that due to current valuation levels they predict that US equity prices will be broadly unchanged for the next TEN years. A crumb of comfort extended when they added that within that timeframe that there will be opportunities within individual sectors.
With GBP trading at GBP/USD 1.2528 the suspicion in the collective mind of the market is that the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is more likely to accelerate interest rate cuts in 2025 rather than adopt the more restrained US stance. Unless that perception changes or UK plc suddenly becomes a great deal more economically productive there will be an effective cap on GBP/USD. 
Gold at $2627 is effectively treading water although gold bugs are still calling for $3000 or more in 2025.
Brent Oil at $73.40 is supported by the latest Chinese economic stimulus and the expectation that there will be more of the same in 2025. If that story were to evaporate the oil price would sink rapidly towards $60.

GBP/EUR 1.2063.

Leaving on a Jet Plane

All of you John Denver fans calm down. This 1967 gem was originally by Peter, Paul and Mary – think fair isle jerseys and (tobacco) pipes for Peter and Paul and wholesomeness for Mary. Fresh from Puff the Magic Dragon the trio had a smash with this one this day in 1969 when it was certified Gold.

All my bags are packed, I’m ready to go
I’m standing here, outside your door
I hate to wake you up to say goodbye
But the dawn is breakin’, it’s early morn’
Taxi’s waiting, he’s blowin’ his horn
Already, I’m so lonesome I could cry

So kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that you’ll wait for me
Hold me like you’ll never let me go
I’m a-leavin’ on a jet plane
I don’t know when I’ll be back again
Oh, babe, I hate to go

There’s so many times I’ve let you down
So many times I’ve played around
I tell you now, they don’t mean a thing (they don’t mean a thing)
Every place I go, I think of you
Every song I sing, I sing for you
When I come back, I’ll wear your wedding ring (I’ll wear your ring)

So kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that you’ll wait for me
Hold me like you’ll never let me go
I’m a-leavin’ on a jet plane
I don’t know when I’ll be back again
Oh, babe, I hate to go

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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