Daily Brief – Euro

Euro

Markets are currently pricing in four 25bp rate cuts for 2025 in the EU from 3% to 2% but some analysts are now predicting that rates may go as low as 1.5%. What that means is that EUR will remain weak and allow buyers of EUR to lock in the best levels for years. 

EUR/USD 1.0430

Global Government Debt

This is a topic that can only move up the agenda in global markets in 2025 given the sheer size of the USD 102 Trillion global government debt mountain. How is it split?

USA with 34%, China 16%, Japan 10%, then UK, France, Italy, India and Germany each with between 2.9% and 3.6% accounts for just under 80%.

EUR/JPY 163.12

Brussels to Venice

From February 5 train aficionados will be able to take the European Sleeper service departing Brussels at 5pm and arrive the next day at 5pm in Venice. The train calls at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Utrecht, Cologne, Munich,  Innsbruck and Verona. So if you plan to attend the Venice Carnival between February 22 and March 4 what better way to get in the mood.

GBP/EUR 1.2052

Long(er) Days

Saturday marked the Shortest Day of the year and those committed to marking it were in position as the sun did not break at Stonehenge, Wiltshire at 0600hrs on Saturday. Stonehenge was established 5000 years ago in 3000BC when the first circular trench was dug. Doubtless it was as cold and wet that year too.

GBP/USD 1.2570

Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree

Perhaps a useful tip with Christmas around the corner but in this case it was this day in 1969 that the Rolling Stones went to Number One on the UK Album Chart with Let it Bleed which featured this gem plus a whole lotta others.

Rockin’ around the Christmas tree
At the Christmas party hop
Mistletoe hung where you can see
Every couple tries to stop

Rockin’ around the Christmas tree
Let the Christmas spirit ring
Later we’ll have some pumpkin pie
And we’ll do some caroling

You will get a sentimental feelin’
When you hear
Voices singin’, “Let’s be jolly (ooh)
Deck the halls with boughs of holly”

Rockin’ around the Christmas tree
Have a happy holiday
Everyone dancin’ merrily
In the new old-fashioned way

Ah-ah

Wishing all of our readers a rocking Christmas!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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