SGM-FX insights

Discussion and analysis by Grace Gliksten:   A month of souring relations with the EU has ended with Turkey in a stalemate with the US following a mutual suspension of visas. The Turkish Lira has unsurprisingly been hit harder by the event than the US Dollar which, surprisingly, still showed a perceptible weakening.     […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter: Labour market performance within the United States offered a short-lived boost to the US Dollar. However, the rest of the US trading session eroded the underwhelming gains made on the back of convoluted, contradictory employment data. The erosion of the value of the US dollar, for example within the […]

US non-farm payrolls data concealed pessimism within the US economy and Labour Market. However, due to the influence of recent natural disasters within the United States, this data was strongly disregarded. Instead, the headline figures within employment, and its inverse, unemployment, were considered. Due to the relationship expounded by the Phillips Curve and the expectation of […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The week to date has seen a reversal of some incumbent forex market trends. Whereas the tripartite combination of Dollar weakness, Sterling (post-Brexit relative) strength and Euro strength seemed entrenched a few weeks ago, new dynamics are prevailing. Particularly, the Dollar has regained considerable value against the Euro […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten:   In the UK overnight trading session, a further blow to the Australian Dollar was dealt by the retail market, further highlighting the importance of the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, to hold interest rates at 1.50 percent. Philip Lowe, governor of the RBA, claimed the […]

  Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The original Brexit vote was motivated by a dissensus within the incumbent Conservative government under David Cameron; at least that is the public and academic consensus. I argue that this suggests that the delivery of a final secession, and the eventual form that Brexit takes, will be […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten:   For the fourteenth month in a row, the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, has left the Cash Rate on hold at 1.50%; a trend that seems unlikely to change in the coming months, due steadfast adherence to a neutral bias. Unsurprisingly, the Australian Dollar reacted negatively. Surprisingly, the […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten:   This article discusses the implications of Catalonia’s independence referendum over the weekend. Following a period of considerable Euro strength, the political uncertainty threatens to halt its gains and shroud the Eurozone economy within doubt.   Falling somewhere between a centrist and a social democrat, Carles Puigdemont started his […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   In theory, the Conservative Party Conference taking place in Manchester could boost the Pound Sterling. This is because it is an opportunity to bring all Conservative Party MPs and Ministerial Cabinet Members together and provide a coherent and harmonious vision of their leadership intentions. However, the content, disorder […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   It is indisputable that this weekend’s referendum in Catalonia generates considerable headline risk within Europe. The instability, uncertainty, and political risk within the Spanish economy has reflected within nationally sensitive equities and indicators. However, the purchasing power of the Euro, its exchange rate vis-à-vis other currencies, appears to […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Hawkish monetary policy rhetoric has enveloped financial markets, and particularly currency markets, over the past couple of weeks. High volatility has prevailed, even within the most developed currencies. The Bank of Canada was the exclusive major developed economy to have ‘walked the walk’, and raise interest rates earlier […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Hawkish monetary policy rhetoric has enveloped financial markets, and particularly currency markets, over the past couple of weeks. High volatility has prevailed, even within the most developed currencies. The Bank of Canada was the exclusive major developed economy to have ‘walked the walk’, and raise interest rates earlier […]