Morning Brief – Oil Prices

Oil Prices

So far the attacks on ships in the Red Sea have had a muted effect on the oil price with Brent rising just 1%. However with more shipping lines holding shipments and re-routing them around the Cape of Good Hope, the likelihood of the extra 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days sailing time will indeed feed through to the oil consumer. The real story though is more about trade if the Red Sea situation continues for long with 12% of global trade routed that way. Most pertinently the rise in oil prices would be a setback for the inflation fighting Central Banks.

Brent USD 77.85.

Eyjafjallajokull

This earthquake in south West Iceland erupted violently yesterday morning. Given that the last time an Icelandic volcanic eruption occurred in 2010, the airways in Europe were forced to shut, naturally there are concerns that the 3.5km crack in the volcano which is spewing out lava at the rate of 100 to 200 cubic meters per second might result in a similar loss of airline revenue. Not likely according to a volcanologist named Dr Ilyinskaya since this type of volcano is not capable of generating the ash clouds that forced airlines to ground their planes in 2010.

EUR/JPY 158.10.

October 6 2024

This is the day that EES or the Entry/Exit System will be rolled out in Europe for British travellers which will involve fingerprints and facial scans being taken once which will then be securely shared across all entry/exit points in Europe. What could possibly go wrong? Without stating the obvious, try and avoid travelling on or soon after 6-10-24 as the system is launched: instead of taking 90 seconds to process a car with 5 passengers, it will it is estimated take up to 7 minutes. Once EES is in place the ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorisation System) visa system will be rolled out. Skegness anyone?

GBP/EUR 1.1620.

Pablo Escobar

As you will recall, Pablo Escobar departed this world in 1993 leaving a rich legacy of legend that has been in part-the truth is even more incredible, folded into successive Netflix docudramas and….one male hippopotamus and three females. That quartet has expanded to a fearsome herd of 165 and zoologists estimate that if left to procreate, would grow to over 1000 so called cocaine hippos by 2035. The decision has been taken and most if not all of the hippos, rather like their turkey cousins, will not make it to Christmas.

EUR/USD 1.0965.

Puff the Magic Dragon

In the days when pop singers were called folk singers and usually sported thick jumpers and beards, Peter, Paul and Mary raised the game when one of them ( not Mary) invariably puffed on a pipe between verses while looking thoughtful or maybe moody. This day in 1969 six years after their first hits, the trio scored their one and only US number 1:
 
Puff, the magic dragon lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist in a land called Honah Lee
Little Jackie Paper loved that rascal Puff
And brought him strings, and sealing wax, and other fancy stuff
 
Oh, Puff, the magic dragon lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee
Puff, the magic dragon, lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee
 
Together they would travel on a boat with billowed sail
Jackie kept a lookout perched on Puff’s gigantic tail
Noble kings and princes would bow whenever they came
Pirate ships would lower their flags when Puff roared out his name
 
Oh, Puff, the magic dragon lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee
Puff, the magic dragon, lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee
 
A dragon lives forever, but not so little boys
Painted wings and giant’s rings make way for other toys
One gray night it happened, Jackie Paper came no more
And Puff, that mighty dragon, he ceased his fearless roar
 
His head was bent in sorrow, green scales fell like rain
Puff no longer went to play along the cherry lane
Without his lifelong friend, Puff could not be brave
So Puff, that mighty dragon, sadly slipped into his cave

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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