SGM-FX insights

UK Government Borrowing At GBP 2.7 trillion or 2,700 billion, the UK is one of the most indebted nations, but to put that in perspective the UK Government borrowing is equivalent to 96% or almost 1 year of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. Broadly between 1975 and 2008, the percentage was between 40 and 50%. […]

US Dollar As markets mostly do after a near straight line decline of 14% up until the end of June USD has clawed back 2% since July 1. For the next couple of months it would look as if USD will consolidate further. What could spoil that? 1. Unexpected US protectionism in the shape of […]

EU Budget There’s nothing like a EUR 2 Trillion Budget to test the bonds of brotherhood binding the EU bloc to squeaking point. Yesterday, President Ursula von Der Leyen launched her increased and eye watering strategic budget which has already met what is politely termed a mixed reception by the EU Parliament as the key […]

FTSE100 With all eyes on the Westminster PM – Chancellor drama recently, or alternatively the saga of POTUS tariffs, it is easy to overlook the positive in that the FTSE is up 10% this year and has just notched up a new “big figure” and an all time high of 9000+. All too often the […]

Georgia Having applied to join the EU in March 2022 and been granted accession in December 2023, Georgia seemed to have been on course to join the EU. However, a few months later the EU and Georgia terminated the process. With the Georgia Dream party in power, and all the leaders of the pro West […]

Strong USD Those punitive tariff threats – Copper 50%, Brazil 50% and Pharmaceuticals 200% had a marked effect on USD. Bizarrely, while POTUS has been conducting his self-harming measures on the USA and the USD, he sees no contradiction in maintaining that he sees USD remaining the primary world reserve currency. A total of 22 […]

Australia Falling inflation, sluggish economic growth, a strong currency, lower living standards and low productivity would normally easily add up to an interest rate cut by the central bank: not in Australia where it was widely expected that yesterday would indeed see a rate cut. That is because the Reserve Bank of Australia is worried […]

Poland June 2025 will go down as a milestone for the energy sector in Poland as it was the first month that renewable energy overtook fossil fuels as a proportion of Poland’s total energy requirements. Poland is one of the highest emitting countries only behind China, Kuwait, South Africa, and Kazakhstan and despite coal consumption […]

Sterling No sooner had the financial press written that Sterling was on the skids due to the Chancellor being on the way out, than PM Starmer woke up to the need for some TLC for his beleaguered Chancellor and executed a handbrake turn to administer some gruesome bedside cheer to the apparently on life support […]

EU Inflation With the ECB annual symposium meeting in sunny Sintra, Portugal, inflation is very much on President Lagarde’s mind ; that is because it is showing signs of rising with the monthly inflation rate showing an increase of 0.3% and that presages a break above the target 2% rate just as she and her colleagues […]

Gold With Gold accounting for the second highest proportion of Central Bank reserves after the USD and the mood music shifting to it assuming a greater influence on future reserves management, it is worth looking at the numbers behind that. In the 1960s, Central Banks held the highest amount historically of 38,000 tons of gold. […]

US Dollar Markets not liking POTUS pontificating on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy on Wednesday, and less still on his view about the competence or otherwise of Chairman Powell. Given the past few weeks, the betting is that Powell’s time is over either being replaced or having a Trump nominee second guessing him but […]