SGM-FX insights

Bank of England Yesterday the BoE was closely watched for two forecasts and also for confirmation that interest rates would be left unchanged as was expected by the markets. In the event, interest rates were indeed left at 5.25% and the forecast for inflation is that it is set to fall from its current 3.2% […]

Germany and the EU The Germany Supply Chain Act came into force in 2023 as a result of Germans wanting to do something good for employees in other countries in particular with respect to human rights and environmental issues. So far so good. But a combination of cost and bureaucracy overlaid with the difficulty of […]

US Dollar With the US Election just over 6 months away it is time to think about the implications for USD with a new President. In case you have missed it Trump plans In the event he wins to devalue USD to boost US exports as part of his MAGA philosophy. As we know ex […]

Japanese Yen With JPY at a new 34 year low versus EUR, the market is set for an ambush by the Bank of Japan if it acts today at the end of their Policy Meeting to support the Yen. The reason that the market is susceptible is because it has convinced itself that the BoJ […]

Milan, Italy The City of Milan has a late night noise problem and so it has acted unilaterally to resolve it-Italian style. A ban on the sale of take away food including ice cream and pizza after midnight is being imposed to protect the “peace and health of residents.” Here in the UK late night […]

British Pound Reports that the UK may cut its interest rates before the USA cut their interest rates were the final straw this past week for Sterling. A slew of less than helpful inflation, employment and finally retail sales saw GBP weaker , but then the suggestion that with the background of that less than […]

US Dollar Surging on a strong US economy together with further geopolitical tensions in the past week, USD is at its strongest versus EUR this year and came within a whisker of breaking through 1.06 in yesterday’s trading. Against the Japanese Yen USD was 154.55 which caused Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to break cover […]

EUR European Central Bank President Madame Lagarde made two bold statements last week: the ECB does not target exchange rates and the ECB is not dependent on Federal Reserve policy. While at one level both are sometimes true, it is brave to explicitly make those statements at a ECB press conference and more than risks […]

European Central Bank Something for everybody: the ECB as expected left interest rates unchanged but made it clear that cuts will be forthcoming now that inflation is near the target 2% rate. Brushed over is that with growth at near zero, bank lending moribund and the EU economy flat, something has to give.EUR/USD 1.0720 Japanese […]

France Quite simply the numbers do not add up for President Macron and his future in government, never mind La Belle France and its citizens : France is the third most indebted EU country after Greece and Italy with a debt to GDP ratio of 110.6%. In the past year the deficit has increased by […]

Space Solar UK Oxfordshire based company Space Solar is on the way to creating a solar farm that will generate constant and cheap electricity….in space. The plan is to launch a 2000 tonne solar farm into space and then with a complicated system of mirrors and solar panels beam light back to Planet Earth from […]

Oil As we have been pointing to, oil has been edging up and is now on a 7 month high. Not it should be stressed on a rosey economic picture but rather on increasing tensions in the Middle East-the latest being the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.Brent: USD 88.70 Sunny Spain The […]