Daily Brief – German Election

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Wed 5 Feb 2025

German Election

With just 18 days to go to the German election, tensions are building. The centre right CDU whose leader Friedrich Merz is likely to be the next Chancellor is under fire for proposing a tougher immigration policy. That says his critics is similar to the far right AFD and verboten given the antipathy of the CDU party to the AFD. Already the CDU and CSU are making nice in anticipation of the need to form a coalition. The irony is that Germany’s voters are still reaping the wind of former Chancellor Mutti Merkel’s open door policy for immigrants and paradoxically want to put a brake on the number of those immigrants entering Germany. Hence the rise and rise of the AFD. Another paradox in the world of the German voter is that the old West Germany is almost entirely CDU/CSU and the old East Germany is the opposite being almost entirely AFD. It may only be 35 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall but political integration across the Lander is yet to take place. Meanwhile would be Chancellor Friedrich Merz has absolutely ruled out any sort of co-operation by the CDU with the AFD.

EUR/USD 1.0322.

EUR buffeted

No not in a food way nor a good way for the EUR but by the many headwinds that Europe is facing which in no particular order are: political uncertainty (Germany as below, France and the EU’s fractious relationship with the new US administration); inflation which is not behaving as Mme Lagarde with her “mission driven” strategy is expecting; unquantifiable tariffs from the USA; the war in Ukraine and Russia’s territorial ambitions. Of course while not good for the EUR, Brits planning to acquire European assets or even just booking their summer holidays have been delivered an opportunity to purchase some cheap EURs.

GBP/EUR 1.2015.

Football World

An eye catching statistic: global football is responsible for as much co2 as Austria. Difficult to measure whether that is more or less than one might expect. But in answer to the question as to how 5 billion fans, players and staff emit that amount of harmful carbon emissions, the answer is mainly through transport (getting to away matches or for diehard fans supporting remote teams, home matches) construction (all those stadiums) and sponsorship (polluting big business sponsors such as oil giant Saudi Aramco). And that leaves the question as to just how much co2 Austria emits: the answer is 61 million tons which is number 53 in the world league table and pretty much the same as Israel, Peru and Libya.

GBP/USD 1.2405.

Apple Intelligence

In case you have not picked it up, Apple’s AI news feed has made some spectacularly wrong announcements including Israel’s President Netanyahu being arrested (he has not been – yet), Rafal Nadal being gay (he is not) and the accused killer of the United Healthcare CEO shooting himself (he has not). So the next time you get a news alert from Apple and feel impelled to act on it, just check as Apple Intelligence unlike the Apple Corporation which decidedly is, may just not be on the money.

USD/JPY 155.32.

Heart of Gold

Neil Young backed by James Taylor and Linda Ronstadt released this song this day in 1972 and it has lasted well into this, the next millenium with its strong bass line, melodies and guitar chords. Probably one that will be wheeled out later in the year at Glasto.

I want to live
I want to give
I’ve been a miner
For a heart of gold
It’s these expressions
I never give
That keep me searching
For a heart of gold
And I’m getting old
Keep me searching
For a heart of gold
And I’m getting old

I’ve been to Hollywood
I’ve been to Redwood
I crossed the ocean
For a heart of gold
I’ve been in my mind
It’s such a fine line
That keeps me searching
For a heart of gold
And I’m getting old
Keeps me searching
For a heart of gold
And I’m getting old

Keep me searching
For a heart of gold
You keep me searching
And I’m growing old
Keep me searching
For a heart of gold
I’ve been a miner
For a heart of gold


Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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