SGM-FX insights

US Dollar One question at least has been answered by the crisis in the Gulf: USD is still the safe haven currency of choice. The Dollar Index rose 1% on Monday and again yesterday, reflecting the attributes of the Dollar market which as we have recently written are not enjoyed by other potential rival currencies such […]

Gold With Spot Gold at USD 5392, Friday saw not one but two US banks break cover and forecast that the price would reach USD 6000 by year end 2026. Indeed, JP Morgan has predicted it will reach USD 6300 a further 20% lurch up from here. Apart from Central Bank buying, the most cited […]

Zeitendwende This is how German politicians describe Germany’s great turning point in its defence policy since the time of the invasion of Ukraine. Without any sense of irony (which is of course best steered clear of in German), the decision has been made to upgrade Germany’s drone capability by investing EUR 536 million in two […]

Canada One of the consequences of what Iran recently described as the unpredictability of President Trump is that PM Mark Carney of Canada has this week embarked on a charm offensive to India,  Australia, and Japan. Just another visit? On the contrary, Canada has had a fractious relationship with India and a real froideur existed […]

US Markets As we settled into the weekend USD was enjoying a fourth day of strengthening, US GDP came in at 1.4% instead of the 3% expected by analysts and US inflation at 2.4% all added up to just a normal Friday in US markets. Then the Supreme Court decision came in deeming POTUS’ tariffs […]

Oil On the back of rising tensions in the Gulf region due to the likelihood of a US strike or even a full out attack on Iran, Brent oil prices went back through USD 70 yesterday. That would of course lead to supply disruption and escalating prices. As night follows day for the same US-Iran […]

Muscular EUR A group of the larger EU countries have come to the realisation that talking about EUR becoming a global currency needs to be translated into more concrete actions with an integrated EU capital market and increased EU borrowing as being the two key measures. This realisation has been amplified by the successive US […]

US Consumer Price Inflation With January CPI coming in at 0.2% and annual inflation at 2.4%, the Federal Reserve will not be feeling undue pressure to cut interest rates for the time being. With inflation expected to increase this year as tariffs feed through and the effects of a depreciating USD are felt, despite the […]

Alphabet Funding and funding AI development has never been easier. Alphabet parent of Google sought USD 20 billion this week by way of a bond issue to fund its AI push and the maturity was set at 100 years. Despite the size and the length of the maturity, the bond issue attracted a staggering USD […]

British Pound The sudden unanimity of support for the beleaguered PM and cessation of anti PM Starmer briefing by members of his cabinet can only mean one thing: PM Starmer threatened a John Major moment (back me or else) and said he would call a General Election unless they offered a unilateral show of support. […]

EU Household Income As envious eyes are cast from some in the UK towards the EU, it is worth noting that the EU average household income has increased by 7% between 2019 and 2024 i.e. since the pandemic. In case you are wondering, the UK has increased its household income by 9% over the same […]

UK Markets As widely expected, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates unchanged. While of course closely watched by markets, the decision and subsequent Press Conference was overshadowed by the continuing political drama unfolding in nearby Westminster. With a 174-seat majority, it would have seemed unlikely or even inconceivable a few short […]