SGM-FX insights

Gold and Silver As regular readers know we do not offer gold pricing but we do of course monitor the Gold price action as it is a key input into Equity, FX, and interest rate markets. Gold stands at USD 4,205 and Silver at USD 55.62. That gives a price ratio of 75. This week […]

OBR: Quis custodiet ipsos custodies? After Wednesday’s fiasco with the pre Budget post budget forecast release, it is worth looking at how the shadowy OBR is actually constituted. Who are the guardians of the UK’s financial probity? The Office of Budget Responsibility as the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog is supposed to be purer than pure, which is […]

UK Migration of HNWs UK migration has become the focus in recent days in addition to, rather than instead of, immigration which is always front and centre in peoples’ minds and not just in the Isle of Dogs and Epping, as some politicians would have us think. Henley and Partners forecasts that the UK will […]

Economic Competence “Chancellor has GBP10 billion hole blown in her calculations just days before her Autumn Statement”, screamed the financial headlines on Friday. Of course, a Budget the size of the UK’s has plenty of overs and unders, but over borrowing and the cost of debt servicing or interest costs are part and parcel of […]

UK Bank Reserves An excellent Daily Telegraph piece this week by economist Dr Gerard Lyons that made a number of telling points that both BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves would do well to read and afterwards to act differently. Just one of those points concerns the Bank of England paying banks bank rate on […]

Japan While this week’s focus has been on the AI bubble as typified by Nvidia shares and the concerns raised by legendary investor Peter Thiel having sold all his Nvidia shares, the USD has been strengthening further against JPY prompting expectations of Bank of Japan intervention to halt the slide in JPY. When it last […]

British Pound News that Chancellor Reeves had abandoned her controversial and politically charged plans to raise UK Income Tax on Friday morning sent the British Pound lower by lunchtime, however, Sterling recovered from most of that fall later on Friday. The reason given for the change of tack on Income Tax rises was that economic […]

Gold and Oil Following the longest US Government shut down ever, the market view is that following the re-opening of the US Government, the data reporting that has been absent will resume and that data will strengthen expectations of a cut in US interest rates. That resulted in the USD selling off and US Yields […]

UK Unemployment by Numbers Work and Pensions Minister Pat Mcfadden defined the art of politics when he announced that 329,000 people “had moved into work” this year and that this was part of the plan to “get Britain working”. The Office of National statistics saw things a bit differently. While not disputing the Minister’s claim, since more […]

USD and US Assets Surely one and the same, so if you own assets you are by definition long USD? Not necessarily. It’s looking like that foreigners are still storing their wealth or buying assets denominated in USD. So cash, bonds or equities primarily. However, this year as we know USD has depreciated by 13%. […]

The EU EV Charging Paradox As a reminder, the EU has decreed that there will be no more internal combustion engine powered cars after 2035. This is a further example of eco policy losing touch with commercial reality as there are currently 1 million charging points across the EU or just 1 point for 13 […]

Chancellor Reeves Market observers were no better informed at the end of the Rachel Reeves speech than they were at the outset yesterday morning. The only surprise was that having comprehensively floated options in the past two months for inclusion in her November 26 Autumn Statement, that the Chancellor should have elected to speak at […]