SGM-FX insights

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   In accordance with our week ahead expectations, today and tomorrow will be another testing and opaque period for major currency pairs. Today’s events will be followed closely because each contains the propensity to arrest or enhance the current trend of a strong Euro, a weak dollar and a […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The strength of the Euro against the dollar and the relative weakness of the dollar against other major currencies is primarily explained by adverse dynamics surrounding the US political economy.   Macroeconomic and political uncertainties in the United States (US) is being framed as partially responsible for the […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:  This is an important week across many of the world’s key currencies. With numerous and salient events battling for supremacy and coverage, ultimately, only time will tell what the aggregation of these event holds in store.   Negotiations on the secession of the United Kingdom from the European Union will […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:    Part One: The Week in Review   Currency movements this week have been distorted by both opportunistic and defensive speculative reshuffles. Strategic positioning has arisen from the anticipation and sentiment that pivotal currency market actors have adopted preceding this afternoon’s Jackson Hole symposium and impending Brexit negotiation round. […]

Provisionally, Euro-zone consumer inflation rose to 2.0% for February from 1.8% and was in line with expectations, although this was the strongest reading for four years.   Unemployment held at 9.6% for January with markets waiting for any signal of a policy change from the ECB and the inflation data did not provide support to […]

US PCE prices rose 0.4% for January with an annual rate at 1.9% from 1.6% and close to the Fed’s 2% target, although the core increase was held to 1.7% and unchanged from the previous month.   The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.7 for February from 56.0 in January and this was the highest […]

Dollar gains dominated the European morning on Wednesday after Fed Dudley’s hawkish comments overnight and the Euro dipped to below 1.0550 against the US currency, although rising German yields eased net selling pressure to some extent.   German consumer process rose 0.6% in February with the annual inflation rate rising to 2.2% from 1.9% previously […]

The Euro traded in narrow ranges during the European session on Tuesday with resistance on approach to the 1.0600 area and little in the way of fresh Euro-zone developments as concerns surrounding the French Presidential election eased slightly.

The latest Euro-zone money supply growth data was in line with consensus expectations as growth slowed slightly to 4.9% from 5.0% previously while private loan growth was slightly stronger for the month at 2.2% from 2.0% previously.   Euro-zone economic confidence edged higher for February to the highest level since 2011 which underpinned growth hopes. […]

ECB minutes from January’s meeting confirmed that the central bank would look through increases in inflation triggered solely by a surge in energy prices and would concentrate on whether there was any evidence of second-round inflation effects.   The ECB expected that overall inflation pressures would remain muted despite an important element of uncertainty surrounding […]

Euro-zone GDP growth was revised down to 0.4% in the updated flash Q4 reading from the provisional 0.5% which will tend to dampen expectations that the Euro-zone economy is gaining momentum.   There was also a weaker than expected reading for the German ZEW investor sentiment index, although the overall market impact was limited.

The EU Commission revised its 2017 Euro-zone GDP growth forecast marginally higher to 1.6% from 1.5% previously, although this was still lower than the 2016 outcome and the underlying tone remained generally downbeat with a high degree of uncertainty over both domestic and US developments.   The inflation forecast for this year was revised higher […]