SGM-FX insights

European Central Bank As widely expected the ECB duly cut EUR interest rates by 25bps yesterday. However the orderly conduct of EU monetary policy is currently anything but orderly in the light of the German coalition partners agreeing to bypass the long standing debt rules. (see below) While the services inflation element is down to […]

Trumpcession A new word coined by the markets to include in the financial lexicon and this word neatly sums up the concern that Trump’s tariffs will result in a US recession which will in turn pervade the global economy. The USD has weakened on the back of the implementation of the first round of tariffs […]

European Economies Of the 5 largest European economies, the largest 3 being Germany, UK and France are growing more slowly than Italy and Spain . That is if they are measured by job postings. However the number of job postings turns out to be a reliable indicator on this occasion. So for those looking for […]

Germany After all the sturm and drang of the German election at the weekend, the outcome can be summed up as the far Right AFD making the most seat gains at +69 and the Far Left Die Linke wining +25 seats but with the pyrrhic victory of no other parties being willing to work with […]

Germany The victory for Chancellor Merz in the weekend Election was popular with the market and the EUR duly strengthened. This was more of a gut reaction than a reasoned response as while the result chimed with the EU political weather, any logical reasoning will lead to the conclusion that the formation of a working […]

France There are 4000 people in France with assets of more than €100 million and they account for just 0.01% of French citizens. Never mind that, the Ecologist Party supported by the Greens and the far left in the National Assembly are determined to target those ultra rich. Unlikely to be approved but eye catching, […]

Approval Ratings One month in and while unlikely to cause POTUS Trump sleepless nights, his approval ratings have shifted markedly on his handling of the US economy. Up from 43% to 53% of those polled believe he on the wrong track. Some noise about immigration and inflation but it is noteworthy that 54% of respondents […]

German Election This weekend will almost certainly see a reduction in the Green Party’s share of the vote in the elections on Sunday. In 2021 the Greens captured 14.7% of the pie with ecological issues and specifically climate change and clean energy being high up the list of voter pre-occupations. Scroll forward four years and […]

Japan Up by 47% in 2024 from 2023 the number of tourists visiting Japan has rocketed due to its favourable exchange rate. It seems unlikely but now Japan is becoming concerned about the sort of over tourism that has plagued European destinations such as Venice, Paris and Amsterdam. Meanwhile Japan is enjoying the economic windfall […]

British Pound Instead of a 0.1% contraction in growth the UK economy managed a 0.1% growth in Q4 2024. And that was enough to send the British Pound sharply up yesterday. Maybe it was or maybe the credit should go to the Daily Telegraph which carried a bullish article which can be summarised as cheer […]

Parallel Universe This time what seemed to be such a parallel universe was yesterday’s meeting between USA VP JD Vance and EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen following the USA sticking penal tariffs on EU aluminium and steel. UVL retaliated with “We should look with optimism at our transatlantic relations” but then remembered to say […]

Great British Pound After a lacklustre reaction to the UK interest rate cut on Thursday and a more visceral one to the much less rosy Bank of England economic forecasts, GBP staged a recovery at the end of the week. However over the weekend a series of less than optimistic commentary on the BoE, the […]