SGM-FX insights

If you are reading this, you might be contemplating doing some FX business in the Twixtmas period- SGM-FX is open 30+31 December and ready to help. Equities, British Pound, Gold and Oil Morgan Stanley sprinkled some less than sparkling seasonal cheer over the weekend on US equity price direction by saying that due to current […]

If you are reading this, you might be contemplating doing some FX business in the Twixtmas period- SGM-FX is open 27+30+31 December and ready to help. US Dollar As we approach 2025 it is still a USD story in currency markets with just 35bps of interest rate cuts in the USA pencilled in for the […]

Euro Markets are currently pricing in four 25bp rate cuts for 2025 in the EU from 3% to 2% but some analysts are now predicting that rates may go as low as 1.5%. What that means is that EUR will remain weak and allow buyers of EUR to lock in the best levels for years.  […]

British Pound With GBP if not all at sea but wallowing against the crashing waves of USD strength, it is a tale of two cities for beleaguered Brits: GBP/USD dipping below the previous floor of 1.2600 but versus EUR GBP still looking firm due to the apparent divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European […]

Germany Gloomy Germans is not an entirely unknown phenomenon for those of us who have toiled in Finanzplatz Deutschland or the Financial Marketplace of Germany which primarily encompasses Frankfurt, Berlin, Dusseldorf and Hamburg. Unfortunately the ZEW German Research Institute are upholding that less than noble tradition in their Economic Sentiment Indicator report that was released […]

Gold and Oil Gold is still firm at USD 2716 but flat whereas oil is perky with Brent at USD 73.22. The reason oil is firmer despite the hopefully de-escalating Middle East situation is that there is hope being injected into the price by the Chinese economic stimulus and the hope that the expected imminent […]

2024 Global Economy Like much else in the dismal science of economics the 80/20 rule applies to the global economy with the G20+ BRICS economies accounting for 80% of the pie and the rest of the world making up 20%. When it comes to the G20 the G7 countries make up 41% and the 5 […]

Dollarisation A chart in this week’s Economist was both not surprising and at the same time quite remarkable. The not so surprising part was that it showed that USD share of all international payments has risen steadily over the past 12 years since 2012, from 30% to just under 50%. Equally expected is that GBP […]

UK Housing Market Best performance in the past two years etc etc with the Halifax average house price up 4.8% as at the end of November. Without being curmudgeonly or seasonally Scroogelike the real house price performance allowing for inflation in the last 2 years is minus 10.5% for all those mistakenly regarding their house […]

UK Equities We wrote recently about a European wide Santa Rally in Equities despite the political headwinds in Continental Europe, but it looks as if the UK market has finally managed to break out on the top side of its range and without wishing to jinx it, may be set fair. One well known Fund […]

BRICS In case you missed it, and I very nearly did due to the sheer amount of soon to be again President Trump’s social media output, he was vociferous in his opposition to a BRICS inspired alternative currency to USD. While we have been following the long running Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa […]

Iceland Over the weekend the 390,000 people of Iceland who number almost the same as the most populous London Borough of Croydon have cast their votes in a snap election that will likely unseat the current coalition and replace it with another one composed of Social Democrats and the Liberal Reform party. Cost of living […]