SGM-FX insights

  A minor weakness in the Euro over the last week has helped to propel the GBPEUR cross to the precipice of the psychological 1.16 barrier. A potential fatigue arising across the Eurozone for concession building and monetary, fiscal and economic integration is one of the main reasons behind the decline.   On Tuesday, the […]

  The European sovereign debt crisis that gripped the eurozone at the beginning of this decade has left the bloc with rose tinted spectacles. During the crisis, the economic performance of key Eurozone member states tumbled considerably. Shown in the Graph below, the economic growth rate within previously flourishing and affluent member states tumbled during […]

  The Euro may have rightly earned its default position of strength and power that is so frequently actively and passively attributed to it when discussing Brexit. One of the principal arguments for forming a monetary Union is security, risk sharing and solidarity. When FX markets must move so freely in developed economies, why not band […]

  The European Central Bank has done very little to benefit the Euro in the past days and weeks. Following the ECB Bank Rate decision on the 8th March the Euro has underperformed. The rhetoric that emerged during the early afternoon press conference following the monetary policy decision has been sustained by a number of […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten:   The interest rate is a monetary policy tool used by central banks to manipulate the macroeconomy. Representing both the reward for saving and the cost of borrowing, interest rates can manipulate the attractiveness of prospective domestic currency exposures.   Unsurprisingly, the Bank of England decided not to raise […]

The forex market this morning has largely extended the trends that began yesterday: the US Dollar continues to shed considerable value; the Euro appears stronger against most of its G-10 counterparts; and the Pound’s performance is highly mixed. This morning, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni accelerated the aggregated political risk surrounding the Euro. The Italian […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Dr. Ben Broadbent, gave a speech two weeks ago on Brexit and interest rates. The take away message from the speech was that a disharmony between a happy public and negative markets is driving inflation. The Deputy Governor suggested that there […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Mid-April saw the beginning of a consistent and predictable bear (downward) trend in the value of the Pound Sterling with respect to the Euro (GBPEUR). Up until the start of September, the Pound lost, on average, 2.14 percent each month. This staggering trend would have seen Sterling fall […]

Discussion and Analysis by Grace Gliksten   The prolonged struggle for Angela Merkel to form a government under her leadership collapsed last night. Christian Linder, leader of the centrist Free Democrats Party, the FDP, announced just before midnight that the party was pulling out of talks with Merkel’s conservative alliance. He said that the parties […]

Brexit Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Italian Prosecco, German automobiles and French wine. While bargaining chips are poured out only to be raked off the table, Brexit is coming more convoluted. No deal is better than a bad deal; no matter what you make of that statement, we’re all relatively unified behind the […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Accounting for a little over one fifth of total the European Union’s GDP, the systemic significance of Germany to the single currency is hard to overstate. Of the series of hard economic data that affect currency markets strongly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation is certainly […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   A short while ago, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for the United Kingdom released economic growth data in the form of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Measuring the total value of goods and services within the economy over a given time period, GDP is the favoured statistic to […]