SGM-FX insights

Sintra, Portugal and the ECB Governor   Mario Draghi ECB Governor despite the reported highest rate of wage growth reported earlier in the week saw weak inflation and growth as key challenges in his speech at Sintra yesterday. He also said that further rate cuts remain an option that the ECB may choose. So it […]

Ten Green Bottles   Yesterday’s first round contest for the new Conservative leader duly skittled 3 of the candidates whose supporters will now add their votes among the remaining 7 next week. Meanwhile further stories about one or more of the 7 are rumoured to be splashed in the weekend press. GBP rangebound depending on rhetoric from […]

Ready, Steady, Go!     Sterling markets yesterday were moved by the unfolding Conservative Party leadership contest, parliamentary developments as well as economic data releases. However, as with most days, the price action within Sterling’s currency pairs was largely determined by the consequences of the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union. Boris Johnson, […]

Currency Markets: Over and Under   That unlikely fx guru President Trump has hit unerringly on a “truth” which funnily enough that political currency tailgater the IMF has concurred with: the EURO is undervalued by according to Bloomberg 22% and the infamous Big Mac Index by 15%. Taking a look at the reasons for the […]

ECB   Mario Draghi talked tough yesterday reiterating that the ECB will not be shy of taking action in support of the EU economy in a period of weakening growth and uncertainty, citing populism and inevitably Brexit. The Euro strengthened, bond yields rose and after a day of up and down trading the net move […]

Banks: Give it a rest!   It’s European Central Bank day and as Draghi’s days in office run thin, all eyes will be on the Bank at 12:45 BST. Markets continued their onslaught against global bond yields yesterday with European, US and UK treasuries rallying in a bid for safety. The market continues to price […]

P.S. there’s a trade deal.     The U.S President, on official state visit to the United Kingdom, had a turbulent landing at Stansted airport yesterday. I’m sure air conditions were smooth over the north easterly runway, however, the President’s Twitter account had already brewed up a storm ahead of touch down. Fake news, vitriolic […]

Markets   The significance of a 4%+ fall in WTI oil last week is not to be underestimated given the reduction in production by Saudi Arabia. Oil markets have taken fright at the increasing concern of a global recession prompted by a US Sino trade war. Last night Andrea Nahles leader of the SDP, Angela […]

China: The Dead Spread   When I worked on the floor of the Chicago Futures Market, traders watched and traded the price differential between spot prices of pork meat and the futures price of live hogs. It was less than charmingly named the Dead Spread. Pork as we all know is a fundamental of the […]

UK Passports and US versus Europe   This may have passed you by but in case it has not: the UK is a member of the 6 month club which allows nationals of countries such as the UK to visit the USA with only the unexpired time necessary for the trip. Now for Europe: in […]

One May too many:   Surviving a third May proved to be too much for the British Prime Minister who, on Friday, announced her resignation in front of 10 Downing Street. Following a meeting with the chairman of the 1922 committee, she was left with no choice but to announce her defeat to the nation. Chosen […]

I.M.Pei   News of the death of I.M.Pei the inspirational architect at the age of 102 late last night. At this time of US Sino stresses it is worth looking at the simply staggering array of work produced by Pei the son of a bank manager born in Canton(Guangzhou) China and who arrived in the […]