SGM-FX insights

Cheese   Before I get to the astronomical rally in cheese futures that I know you have been eagerly awaiting, let’s take a look at what the Federal Reserve said last night in one of its most defining monetary policy meetings in a decade. As we discussed recently, the market knows that global central banks […]

Corporate USA   Yesterday POTUS, Joe Biden announced an increase in the minimum hourly wage for federal contractors from $10.95 to $15, an increase of almost 37%. Corporate USA is under no illusions that this will feed through to the bottom lines of non federal corporations. The categories of federal workers that this will apply […]

Tightrope   The three phase pandemic from an FX and rates perspective goes as follows: Tantrum, Blinkers and Tapering. The blinkers are still on the international market and still subduing volatility in the foreign exchange market, but yesterday we got a real taste of what tapering looks like and therefore what is in store for […]

Hey Ho up she rises   Carrying 18,300 containers, the cost of the stranded Ever Given vessel in the Suez Canal was costly for its operators, Taiwanese Evergreen, the privately operated canal, global trade, and me. Perhaps my IKEA package that spent nearly a week of it’s pre-delivery life on that boat stranded just outside […]

More stimulus?!   When you look at the inflation concerns that have been developing in the US economy as a result of Biden’s €1.9tn stimulus package you may have thought it would be madness to start planning yet another round of $3tn worth of stimulus. After all, if people thought that the existing package risked […]

Blue Hydrogen   This is the splitting of gas between hydrogen and CO2 which captures harmful greenhouse gases and therefore mitigates harmful effects on the planet. News that Saudi Armco is working with China as the green agenda assumes increasingly greater priority is interesting. What do the Chinese want in return? The answer is for […]

Powell: and the yield is gone   Improving economic forecasts for global and US growth in particular have been captivating markets in recent weeks as we have spoken extensively about. The main impact has been to drive up the yield on US debt to reflect the increased inflation and growth that lies in store for […]

Driver   The slack water as the pull of the pandemic is replaced by the recovery phase is over. With Brexit growing ever smaller in the rear view mirror of FX markets, there are new forces afoot driving foreign exchange flows. The main driver of markets is the asymmetrical bounce back from economic and social […]

Dead Cat Bounce   Perhaps it is a little harsh to refer to the US currency, a symbol of soft power throughout the globe and the foremost medium of exchange for decades as a dead cat. Nonetheless, the metaphor is appropriate and if that’s not enough for you, it’s done now anyway. To refer to […]

Today is International Women’s Day which has been celebrated since 1909.   US Economy   With the creation of 379,000 new jobs in February, the US economy is looking suddenly more robust that together with some weekend sunshine has brought out the inflation worriers with the notable exception of the Chairman of the Federal reserve, […]

No-taper tantrum   There are two critical moments in any public body’s response to an economic shock. The first is the initial reaction – how will governing institutions respond initially to reassure the markets and public alike to preserve as much normality as possible. Whilst the sustenance provided by these institutions throughout the course of […]

Rates   Yields on longer dates US debt have now largely wiped out their post March 2020 collapse. The sell-off in global government debt is yet one more symptom of the so-called reflation trade and the market’s bet on normality returning over the coming months and quarters. On the one hand, with a huge fiscal […]