SGM-FX insights

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank undertook and presented what is, and what will be, arguably their most important monetary policy decision of this year. In keeping with the dominant theme from the Governor who hasn’t raised rates since he took office in 2014, the monetary policy decision was vague, dovish and resulted in an […]

Following weeks of political and economic tumult, the Pound is not out of trouble just yet. Having only just survived the FX week from hell last week, (which saw a slurry of economic data and no less than four interest rate decisions across the globe), Thursday’s Bank of England decision stands as a great obstacle […]

European Economic Community   Talks on the formation of a populist coalition government in Italy have dominated headlines for the past week. Following a closely watched and ultimately as yet inconclusive election in Italy that took place over two months ago, a potential coalition between the ‘Five Star’ and ‘League’ populist parties appears to be […]

Sadly, Dr. Mark Carney looks like he’s in for another round of being labelled the unreliable boyfriend. Accusing markets of significantly under pricing the probability of a rate hike and claiming that the Bank views the UK economy through far more sanguine eyes than the market at large, the central bank Governor looks highly likely […]

With Super Thursday upon us, considerable volatility lies ahead for Sterling, and for that matter global, currency markets. At midday today, the minutes from the meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will be released. Only thirty minutes later, Dr Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, will hold a press conference. Expectations for a […]

If it ain’t broke… Fix it. That’s certainly been the message and driver of the European Union (or its predecessors, the previously unbroken European Economic Community, or functioning European Coal and Steel Community). This observation, be it a criticism or a compliment, can’t be levied at the EU exclusively: everything human, perhaps even living, with […]

As things look to have cooled off within the Korean Peninsula, the nuclear problem looms its head in another area; this time Iran. The run up to the decision had numerous impacts upon markets, with the brunt of the volatility being felt in oil markets.   Following the lifting of sanctions in line with the […]

The signals of last night’s monetary policy decision by the US Federal reserve appear to have been misread. In fact, the initial reaction across equity, treasury and FX markets appeared to imply that markets expected the FED to raise rates during this meeting, despite their persistent and vocal admonitions that a rate hike is not […]

  As Sterling has hit a year-to-date low this week, the US Dollar has rallied and, in turn, trades at its highest value of 2018 so far. The market snapshot this morning shows a flat Pound Sterling along with a dampened Euro. Despite weak inflation data in the Eurozone being announced this morning, the single […]

Since a Consumer Price Inflation report on 18th April, the Pound Sterling spot index has lost over 5%. The GBP index provides a holistic picture of the Pound’s performance conditioned upon the economy’s relative exposure to respective currency pairs. By purely reflecting the strength of the Pound sterling without the influence of idiosyncratic contra currencies, […]

  A minor weakness in the Euro over the last week has helped to propel the GBPEUR cross to the precipice of the psychological 1.16 barrier. A potential fatigue arising across the Eurozone for concession building and monetary, fiscal and economic integration is one of the main reasons behind the decline.   On Tuesday, the […]

  At 09:30 yesterday morning, the Pound was in momentary free fall as investors priced out the positive risk of an increase in interest rates in May and into 2019. As the imperative monetary policy decision on the 10th May draws ever closer, analysis and qualifications of future inflation expectations will be highly salient to […]