Morning Brief – Vice President

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Fri 24 May 2024

Vice President

Rather like those riderless horses in the Grand National that gallop over the fences alongside horses with jockeys aboard, Nikki Haley despite having abandoned her nomination bid for the Republican presidential candidacy, is still garnering 20% of Republican votes. Now however NH while falling short of endorsing her ex rival President Trump, has said that she will vote for him. This was only slightly spoiled by Nikki Haley explaining her choice as only being down to the catastrophe that is Joe Biden’s presidency. Still that charmer Donald Trump said that he did not want the support of those millions of Haley’s supporters and for good measure called NH a “bird brain.” On what passes in US politics as a rapprochement and despite it being somewhat unpromising, Nikki Haley is undoubtedly sending a message to Trump and Trump cannot ignore it as with Nikki Haley on the ticket as Veep, it is generally acknowledged that they would be virtually unbeatable.

EUR/USD 1.0848

EU Business Activity

Looking at the two largest economies in the EU, there is growing optimism on the back of Germany and France seeing business activity showing the fastest growth for a year. Drilling down however, France while showing good growth in manufacturing saw a contraction in services. In Germany however business activity in both manufacturing and in services. When it comes to the EU train, it is of course if not exclusively, largely the German locomotive pulling the EU train. Woo woo.

EUR/ JPY 169.91

Orange Juice

Here’s one for the pub quiz: when it comes to orange juice production, 85% of the world market is divided between Florida USA and Brazil. And Brazil exports 99% of its orange juice. Drought has severely impacted production globally-the other two large producers Mexico and Spain have also suffered droughts-and the result is that Orange Juice futures are up over 75%. That whopping increase is already feeding through to retail prices so standby for orange juice becoming a breakfast luxury rather than a staple.

GBP/USD 1.2737


What could be more Italian than a Fiat 600(the old 500)? The answer is quite a lot according to Italian PM Giorgia Meloni who, after the takeover by Stellantis described it as a takeover by the French, and who is turning up the temperature on Fiats produced in lower cost Poland but displaying the Italian flag on their bumpers: misleading and as for calling those cars Milano, unacceptable. As for a consignment of Fiat Topolinos made in even lower cost Morocco well outside those pesky EU manufacturing rules, to PM Meloni’s fury the Topolinos have the Italian flags on their doors which is why they were impounded by Italy’s finest when they were landed in Italy.

GBP/EUR 1.1730.

Bridge Over Troubled Water

This day in 2007 when Paul Simon and Art Garfunkel reunited for a rare performance in Washington DC, Paul Simon introduced his former bandmate and writer as “My dear friend and partner in arguments, Art Garfunkel.” So no hard feelings there.

When you’re weary, feeling small,
When tears are in your eyes
I will dry them all
I’m on your side
Oh when times get rough
And friends just can’t be found

Like a bridge over troubled water
I will lay me down
Like a bridge over troubled water
I will lay me down

When you’re down and out
When you’re on the street
When evening falls so hard
I will comfort you
I’ll take your part
Oh when darkness comes
And pain is all around

Like a bridge over troubled water
I will lay me down
Like a bridge over troubled water
I will lay me down

Sail on, silver girl
Sail on by
Your time has come to shine
All your dreams are on their way
See how they shine
Oh if you need a friend
I’m sailing right behind

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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