Morning Brief – US Interest Rate Cuts

US Interest Rate Cuts

With 5 quarter point cuts expected in 2024 by market watchers at the end of 2023, what could go wrong for the US economy and by implication for the rest of the world? The answer is that if inflation is squashed and the economy is cooling, then that will be a great reason for rate cuts. 50% of the market expects that to occur in March with the other 50% thinking that June is more likely. If however the US economy is forced into a recession, then that is a much less acceptable outlook and a poor background to putative rate cuts. So far the US market looks resilient with unemployment at 3.7%.

EUR/USD 1.0760.

Apple Vision Pro

It may not have garnered much in the way of publicity- yet – but this AR/VR Apple system is going to be huge. Augmented Reality augments your surroundings by adding digital elements to your surroundings. Virtual Reality on the other hand uses a completely immersive experience that replaces a real life environment with a simulated one. Apple has created a system that leaves its rivals in the dust. All that stands between you and it is the price tag: USD 3499 available in 2024.

USD/JPY144.90.

Mallaig and Morar

These islands in the Inner Hebrides in the North West of Scotland were awoken yesterday morning to something highly unusual in those parts: an earthquake. Measuring 2.1 on the Richter scale it was more a case of being stirred from slumber rather than shaken awake and far from an example of the earth moving. 

GBP/EUR 1.1655.

Climate

NGESO or the UK’s National Grid Electricity Storage Operator has it transpires not been using battery capacity to store electricity. Instead it has been “skipping” which means it has been instead using fossil fuels for example. This means that 71,000 tons of carbon have been sent into the atmosphere unnecessarily. Not a great look for the week of COP 28.

GBP/USD 1.2545.

Material Girl

This day in 2008 a Chilean Roman Catholic Cardinal gave his verdict on Madonna’s first concert in Santiago, Chile. It included the words: shameless, lust, lustful thoughts, crazy enthusiasm and impure thoughts. 60,000 fans shared his views with crazy enthusiasm.

Some boys kiss me
Some boys hug me
I think they’re ok
If they don’t give me proper credit
I just walk away

They can beg and they can plead
But they can’t see the light (that’s right)
‘Cause the boy with the cold hard cash
Is always Mister Right

‘Cause we are living in a material world
And I am a material girl
You know that we are living in a material world
And I am a material girl

Some boys romance
Some boys slow dance
That’s all right with me
If they can’t raise my interest then I
Have to let them be

Some boys try and some boys lie but
I don’t let them play (no way)
Only boys who save their pennies
Make my rainy day
‘Cause we’re living in a material world
And I am a material girl

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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