Morning Brief – US Dollar

US Dollar

Eye catching statements from President Lula of Brazil regarding Brazil supporting China in its call for the replacement of the US Dollar by so called de-dollarization with, funnily enough, the BRICS currencies ie Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Far be it for us to point out the obvious but Russia is for the foreseeable future out of contention, India and Brazil may have a greater role in the future but currently are not in the race, South Africa has too many domestic problems, so that leaves China. Instead of explaining why China is not (yet?) a possibility as the world’s reserve currency, let’s list why the US Dollar will remain in that role for the foreseeable future:

1. The sheer size of the US economy.

2. The freely convertible nature of USD unlike CNY.

3. The relative political and economic stability of the USA in comparison to both China and the EU.

EUR/USD 1.1000.

Germany

With the shutting down process of the last 3 nuclear power stations in Germany beginning this week, the immediate result is that Germany will have to generate the shortfall in power required by ramping up polluting fossil fuel power stations. The only way to shut down those polluting power stations going forward is to hugely increase electricity derived from solar and wind sources which is felt unachievable in the short term or even the medium term. Bavarian governor Markus Soeder who originally backed Chancellor Merkel’s move back in 2011 has completely changed his mind and describes the shutdown of nuclear power stations as “absolutely the worst decision.”

Meanwhile Germany faces shortages, higher prices and a deterioration in air quality as the Greens declare victory for achieving this milestone on the march towards carbon neutrality in Germany by 2045.

GBP/EUR 1.1280.

Donna: The Mother of Aussie Invention

Hats off to the Australian motorists who are cleaning out sex shops down under of their stocks of a full size inflatable female blonde companion named Donna. Many highway express lanes stipulate a minimum of 2 passengers to use them with camera monitors ensuring compliance, hence Donna being enlisted as a passenger.

USD/AUD 1.4905.

Global Gas Supplies

From shortage to glut in a few short weeks: the world is now experiencing a surplus of gas with LNG tankers struggling to find slots to dock to unload and inventories now reaching full capacity much earlier after the so called heating season-the period of the year when much of the world runs down supplies due to cold winter weather. One of the prime reasons is that this last winter has been warmer than usual so consumption has not been at forecast levels. For household consumers who have been at the mercy of energy companies raising and re-raising monthly charges, a sharp fall in gas prices cannot come too soon.

GBP/USD 1.2415.

Wild Thing

Apart from being National Bat Appreciation Day, today was also the day in 1966 that The Troggs released their seminal record, Wild Thing which stormed to the very top of the charts in both the US and the UK despite being described by the music paper Record Retailer as …” a most curious record.”

Wild thing
You make my heart sing
You make everything groovy
Wild thing
Wild thing, I think I love you
But I wanna know for sure
Come on, hold me tight
I love you

Wild thing
You make my heart sing
You make everything groovy
Wild thing

Wild thing
I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
So come on and hold me tight
You move me

Wild thing
You make my heart sing
You make everything groovy
Wild thing
Come on, come on wild thing
Shake it, shake it, wild thing

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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