Morning Brief – UK Interest Rates

UK Interest Rates

Despite soothing words from BoE Governor Bailey last week on interest rates reaching the end of the rise cycle, wage inflation of 7.8% in the 3 months to the end of July plus unemployment a tiny bit higher at 4.3% both suggest that the end may have been called too early. So that signals that there will indeed be a 25bp rise rather than a pause next week and that it is by no means certain that that will be an end to it.

GBP/ZAR 23.68.

Venice

For the first time for a very long time, the number of tourist beds or accommodation exceeds the number of residents of La Serenissima. In broad terms there are 50,000 tourist beds and this year the population has dipped below 50,000. Since the 1950’s when the population stood at 120,000 the number of residents has dwindled to where it stands today when Venice is less of a domicile than a themed tourist attraction. Maybe just maybe accommodation prices have plateaued in this beautiful but eye wateringly expensive Instagram-able destination.

GBP/EUR 1.1630.

NASA

The James Webb Space Telescope has identified a molecule on a planet a mere 120 light years away that on Earth at least can only be produced by human life. This report demonstrates that news is somewhat thin as well as being clear evidence that the silly story season is not yet over. While this news may have set pulses racing in the scientific community it unsurprisingly left global financial markets unruffled despite being a welcome distraction from worrying about next week’s Central Bank decision making.

Cruising By Numbers

Unless you follow the share prices of global cruise operators, it is unlikely that you will be aware of the Lazarus type experience that the industry went through over the global pandemic. Back in 2019 more than 30 million passengers a year took a cruise. That fell to 5 million in 2021 and resulted in most cruise ships being moored offshore awaiting a miracle. That miracle duly occurred and in 2023 annual passenger numbers once again are back to 2019 levels. Interestingly this popularity shows no sign of diminishing and in fact is forecast to grow to 40 million passengers annually by 2027. Florida with its 3 main ports takes the lion share of passenger embarkations with 12 million, followed by Cozumel, Mexico with 4 million and Nassau and Shanghai with 3 million each with Barcelona, Citavecchia (Rome), Southampton and San Juan with 2 million each. Carry on Cruising!

GBP/USD 1.2470.

Your Song

Everyone will remember this great song by Elton John, but unless you were on the Great lawn in NYC’s Central Park this day in 1980, it is unlikely that you will recall that this was the occasion that Elton John performed in front of 400,000 spectators dressed as….Donald Duck.

It’s a little bit funny, this feeling inside
I’m not one of those who can easily hide
I don’t have much money, but, boy, if I did
I’d buy a big house where we both could live

If I was a sculptor, heh, but then again, no
Or a man who makes potions in a traveling show
I know it’s not much, but it’s the best I can do
My gift is my song, and this one’s for you

And you can tell everybody this is your song
It may be quite simple, but now that it’s done
I hope you don’t mind, I hope you don’t mind that I put down in words
How wonderful life is while you’re in the world

I sat on the roof and kicked off the moss
Well, a few of the verses, well, they’ve got me quite cross
But the sun’s been quite kind while I wrote this song
It’s for people like you that keep it turned on

So excuse me forgetting, but these things I do
You see, I’ve forgotten if they’re green or they’re blue
Anyway, the thing is, what I really mean
Yours are the sweetest eyes I’ve ever seen

And you can tell everybody this is your song
It may be quite simple, but now that it’s done
I hope you don’t mind, I hope you don’t mind that I put down in words
How wonderful life is while you’re in the world

I hope you don’t mind, I hope you don’t mind that I put down in words
How wonderful life is while you’re in the world

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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