Morning Brief – UK

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Mon 4 Dec 2023


With 2 year mortgage rates less than 4% and 5 years at 4.39%, the implication for the housing market which has responded by a modest 0.2% rise, is that rates are soon going to fall and that the UK economy is stabilising. While there will doubtless be setbacks to this rose tinted scenario, for now the markets are comfortable in the short term with this benign scenario and are overlooking the zero economic growth picture that is on the minds of longer term market strategists.

GBP/EUR 1.1665.

The Loonie

The Canadian Dollar is at its strongest since the end of September at USD/CAD 1.3495 after gaining 0.5%. Jobs have increased by almost 25,000, interest rates are implying reductions in parallel with the USA and the Canadian economy looks set fair despite manufacturing orders having fallen for 7 straight months as the global economy has contracted. Canada has taken the oil price decline in its stride with NYMEX WTI at $74.06.


At 21.8 tons of carbon emissions per capita the UAE might usefully start looking at its own record while hosting COP28. The global average is 4.8.
UK at 5.2 and the USA at 14.9. The Gulf does not score well with Qatar at 35.6, Bahrain on 26.7 and Kuwait at 25. At the other end of the scale is the Democratic Republic of Congo at 0.1 tons.


After more than 30 years with what they thought to be a garden ornament in their garden in Milford haven, a Welsh couple were non-pluses by all the excitement when the bomb disposal squad cordoned off the area before detonating what turned out to be a 69 pound naval projectile or shell from the late 1800’s which owner Mrs Edwards had been in the habit of banging when she wanted to remove earth from her garden trowel.

GBP/USD 1.2700.

American Pie

This day in 1971 this 8.5 minute song entered the charts and Don McClean was suddenly not only talked about but on his way to stardom. The norm in those days was for songs of 3 minutes so at first critics and fans were a bit bemused at the length of this, the first of the longer pop songs. Ever since the song and its words have been endlessly discussed and dissected for symbolism and hidden meaning:

A long, long time ago, I can still remember
How that music used to make me smile
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And maybe they’d be happy for a while

But February made me shiver
With every paper I’d deliver
Bad news on the doorstep
I couldn’t take one more step
I can’t remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride
But something touched me deep inside
The day the music died

So, bye, bye, Miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to The Levee, but The Levee was dry
And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey in Rye
Singin’, “This’ll be the day that I die
This’ll be the day that I die”

Did you write the Book of Love?
And do you have faith in God above
If the Bible tells you so?
Do you believe in rock ‘n’ roll?
Can music save your mortal soul?
And can you teach me how to dance real slow?

Well, I know that you’re in love with him
‘Cause I saw you dancing in the gym
You both kicked off your shoes
Then I dig those rhythm and blues
I was a lonely teenage broncin’ buck
With a pink carnation and a pickup truck
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the music died

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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