With 2 year mortgage rates less than 4% and 5 years at 4.39%, the implication for the housing market which has responded by a modest 0.2% rise, is that rates are soon going to fall and that the UK economy is stabilising. While there will doubtless be setbacks to this rose tinted scenario, for now the markets are comfortable in the short term with this benign scenario and are overlooking the zero economic growth picture that is on the minds of longer term market strategists.
The Canadian Dollar is at its strongest since the end of September at USD/CAD 1.3495 after gaining 0.5%. Jobs have increased by almost 25,000, interest rates are implying reductions in parallel with the USA and the Canadian economy looks set fair despite manufacturing orders having fallen for 7 straight months as the global economy has contracted. Canada has taken the oil price decline in its stride with NYMEX WTI at $74.06.
At 21.8 tons of carbon emissions per capita the UAE might usefully start looking at its own record while hosting COP28. The global average is 4.8. UK at 5.2 and the USA at 14.9. The Gulf does not score well with Qatar at 35.6, Bahrain on 26.7 and Kuwait at 25. At the other end of the scale is the Democratic Republic of Congo at 0.1 tons.
After more than 30 years with what they thought to be a garden ornament in their garden in Milford haven, a Welsh couple were non-pluses by all the excitement when the bomb disposal squad cordoned off the area before detonating what turned out to be a 69 pound naval projectile or shell from the late 1800’s which owner Mrs Edwards had been in the habit of banging when she wanted to remove earth from her garden trowel.
This day in 1971 this 8.5 minute song entered the charts and Don McClean was suddenly not only talked about but on his way to stardom. The norm in those days was for songs of 3 minutes so at first critics and fans were a bit bemused at the length of this, the first of the longer pop songs. Ever since the song and its words have been endlessly discussed and dissected for symbolism and hidden meaning:
A long, long time ago, I can still remember How that music used to make me smile And I knew if I had my chance That I could make those people dance And maybe they’d be happy for a while
But February made me shiver With every paper I’d deliver Bad news on the doorstep I couldn’t take one more step I can’t remember if I cried When I read about his widowed bride But something touched me deep inside The day the music died
So, bye, bye, Miss American Pie Drove my Chevy to The Levee, but The Levee was dry And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey in Rye Singin’, “This’ll be the day that I die This’ll be the day that I die”
Did you write the Book of Love? And do you have faith in God above If the Bible tells you so? Do you believe in rock ‘n’ roll? Can music save your mortal soul? And can you teach me how to dance real slow?
Well, I know that you’re in love with him ‘Cause I saw you dancing in the gym You both kicked off your shoes Then I dig those rhythm and blues I was a lonely teenage broncin’ buck With a pink carnation and a pickup truck But I knew I was out of luck The day the music died
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]
EU Commission Instead of November’s EU growth forecast of 1.2%, the EU Commission has revised back its prediction to 0.8% for the growth in the gross domestic product of the 20 countries. The 2025 year however will see growth of 1.5%. Back to 2024, it is difficult for the EU bloc to grow much when […]
Germany With the German IFO or Business Climate Index down from 90.10 a year ago to its current level of 85.20, Germany’s business leaders are more realistic about the outlook for Europe’s largest economy than their political leaders. Chancellor Scholz wisely passed the speech making duties yesterday to one of his cohorts who managed with […]