Humphrey Percy Chairman and FounderFri 12 May 2023
Well signposted that interests rates would rise by 25bps yesterday which they duly did. However it was the year end inflation forecast that was raised from 4% to 5% that furrowed many brows. The previous promise admittedly from the Government rather than the Bank of England was to halve inflation from 10 to 5 by the end of Q3. The BoE professed itself surprised in particular by persistent food inflation. Now THAT was no surprise to anyone who shops for food in the UK. The market duly marked down British Pound on the BoE once again being found lacking on its inflation fighting front. GBP/USD 1.2505.
In case anyone was in any doubt US Treasury Secretary Yellen spelt it out: if the US defaults on its debts, it will be very bad for the USA economy, the global economy and for trust in the US, its markets and its currency. Astonishing that that needs to be said. The oil market was in no doubt and despite cuts in supply by OPEC+ together with China demand growing, oil sold off by 1% yesterday to USD 79.30.
For the first time ever, more electricity was generated by wind power than by gas. In Q12023 wind was responsible for a third of electricity generated in the UK out of a total of 42% from renewable energy versus 33% from fossil fuel. GBP/EUR 1.1470.
FX markets and a tip for Saturday’s Grand Final: money going on Swedish songstress Lorene to repeat her 2012 success with Euphoria and to win Eurovision for a second time with Tattoo. Yes really. USD/SEK 10.3170.
This day in 1984 Lionel Richie, he of Windsor Castle Concert fame for younger readers, had his 6th Billboard 100 Hit with this number that has become an evergreen hit for the US singer songwriter. EUR/USD 1.0900.
Hello? I’ve been alone with you inside my mind And in my dreams I’ve kissed your lips a thousand times I sometimes see you pass outside my door
Hello, is it me you’re looking for? I can see it in your eyes, I can see it in your smile You’re all I’ve ever wanted and my arms are open wide ‘Cause you know just what to say, and you know just what to do And I want to tell you so much, I love you
I long to see the sunlight in your hair And tell you time and time again how much I care Sometimes I feel my heart will overflow
Hello, I’ve just got to let you know ‘Cause I wonder where you are and I wonder what you do Are you somewhere feeling lonely or is someone loving you? Tell me how to win your heart, for I haven’t got a clue But let me start by saying, I love you
Hello, is it me you’re looking for? ‘Cause I wonder where you are and I wonder what you do Are you somewhere feeling lonely or is someone loving you? Tell me how to win your heart, for I haven’t got a clue But let me start by saying, I love you
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
UK Labour market The Bank of England yesterday broke cover to drive the message home that due to the UK’s labour market remaining tight, it was premature to start talking interest rate cuts and it was not just Governor Bailey who was calling for higher for longer interest rates but also his MEPC colleague Jonathan […]
British Pound Two days after the Autumn Budget Statement, the Pound is hanging in there and is looking firm. Why? Despite some attempts to talk it up on the grounds of the economy not in fact contracting, but merely marking time, the real reason is that while not being shouted from the rooftops, but definitely […]
UK: We Will Cut Taxes This morning will demonstrate that it is worth listening carefully when politicians make promises. In this case it is the word “will”, because with the economic tank almost completely dry, while he is a recent convert to the idea of cutting taxes, Chancellor Hunt has limited scope to do anything […]