Morning Brief – Turkey

Morning Brief – Turkey

Fri 26 Jun 2020



Emerging Markets nervous on Turkey’s reported removal from the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Those nerves are due to the increasing difficulty of accessing the Turkish market plus the unpredictable behaviour of President Erdogan. If Turkey was removed, there would not only be a huge outflow of existing foreign investment but those future inward flows would be much reduced going forward. Turkey is rumoured to be on the verge of being re-designated as either a frontier or a stand alone market. USD drifting back towards the 7 TRL level at 6.86 which while not the lowest rate for the TRL does represent greater value for foreign investors- depending on the outcome at the MSCI decision making table.





Those readers who have concluded lengthy business meetings over dinner late at night in Beijing, China will remember the world class headaches that they awake to the following morning. This is likely caused by the rounds of Moutai a liqueur produced by Kweichong pressed on them by their Chinese hosts. Incredibly the market valuation of Kweichong has overtaken that of Western names such as Disney and Coca Cola on the back of its growing fan base of Chinese drinkers and a tight cap on supply. All business owners can only look with envy at the company that produces Moutai and sells it for up to RMB 2600 or USD 370 a bottle where it is a must have at business meetings and weddings where heroic amounts are consumed. The production margin Is 92% and in the past two months the value of the company post lockdown in China has grown to USD 260Billion. If you are wondering what this wonder drink is like: Moutai has a soy sauce aroma and tastes of plants, grains and fruits. To avoid a self inflicted headache, I would recommend Westerners give both the drink and the shares a miss!



The King


It was this day in 1977 that Elvis Presley gave his final concert at the Market Square Arena in Indianapolis, Indiana to a crowd of 18,000. A month later at the age of 42, the world lost one of its most popular and enduring entertainers. The set list that final night included his 1956 hit, Love Me:


Treat me like a fool
Treat me mean and cruel
But love me

Break my faithful heart
Tear it all apart
But love me

If you ever go
Darling, I’ll be oh, oh so lonely
I’ll be sad and blue
Crying over you, dear only

I would beg and steal
Just to feel your heart
Beatin’ close to mine


Have a great weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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