Thirty Years Ago: The Fall of the Berlin Wall
Since that seismic event in Europe and the ensuing wave of globalization that the world has experienced, it is interesting to see which economies have benefitted most: the answer is of course the USA, Brazil, Russia, India and China. In Europe the biggest winner has been Poland which has grown 550% versus Germany at 350%. The USA on the other hand has grown 1650%. These growth figures hide a lot of variations such as a substantial fall in the value of the Rouble since the Wall came down but the major driver for global economic growth has of course been much lower borrowing costs.
Chinese Takeaway: China in Numbers
Consumer Price Inflation rose 3.8% year on year in China at the end of October- higher than the 3.3% expected mainly due to higher pork prices as trailed here months ago following the outbreak of swine fever. Economic Growth is at a highly respectable 6.5%. The Producer Price Index or PPI seen as the best reflection of corporate profitability fell 1.6% in October. So far the US tariffs imposed in the trade war have cost China
USD 35Billion. The last reported foreign exchange reserves held by the People’s Bank of China in 2016 showed a figure of USD 3.12 Trillion. The composition of those reserves is a closely guarded secret but observers estimate USD 2 Trillion in USD, USD 600 Billion in Euros and USD 412 Billion split between GBP and Yen.
Worth more than USD 150 Million today and divorced since 2013 Demi Moore is a catch, a complicated catch admittedly, but a catch nonetheless. In 1995 Demi was the highest paid Hollywood actress and married at that time to tough guy Bruce Willis with whom she had three daughters now aged between 25 and 31. Since then having dated and married the much younger Ashton Kuchter, Demi has embarked in a new love direction-this time with a girlfriend. In the past year she has been stepping out with a Serbian stylist named Masha Mandzuka who has a 2 year old daughter. I’ll stop there-but I did warn you that it was complicated!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Overrated Rates The unwinding of USD implied short term interest rates shouldn’t be underestimated. Take a brief look at changes in FX swap pricing over the past few months and you’ll see just how significant those interest rate expectations have proved to be. Particularly within GBPUSD, the difference is enormous. Post-pandemic inflationary pressures affected the […]
Nonstop flight to nowhere And before you start wondering, no, this brief isn’t about some new route Qantas has launched to propel passengers an inconceivably long distance in one hit. What I refer to in the title of this briefing are the rapidly evolving growth and economic base case projections within the US. The debate […]
Fifty Up Exactly 50 years ago today I set out on my career in the City of London. Many of the men whom I worked with wore bowler hats and smoked pipes. Discount House men wore morning dress and top hats. Everyone wore two or three piece suits and black shoes. If you wore brown […]