Morning Brief – Russia and the Markets

Russia and the Markets

Distilling the uncertainties around what is really happening and what might happen following the events in Rostov on Don and other areas as close as 200km to Moscow over the weekend is a mug’s game. Interesting to see how little markets have moved in anticipation of the market opening a few hours from when I am writing this. Classic defensive moves would be to buy USD which had dutifully strengthened in anticipation and buy Gold which has managed a minuscule upward move. Chuck in buying US Treasury Bonds and Japanese Yen and the defensive toolkit would be pretty much compete. Prior to the holiday season when wiser heads may not be on the desk, a sensible wait and see attitude currently prevails.
EUR/USD 1.0890.

London Mayor

May 2 2024 will see the election for London Mayor for which there are 7 candidates at present including 3 Conservatives, 1 Green, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Reform UK and the charmless incumbent Labour candidate Saadiq Khan who is widely expected to win again. Contrast that to today’s election of Mayor of Toronto, Canada where all it takes is CAD 200 (GBP 118) and 25 signatures to enter the fray. 102 candidates have done so representing a wide cross section of the 3 million populace of the city including one who has stated that he has entered to represent his dog which is tellingly named Molly.
GBP/CAD 1.6755.

Gold

Notwithstanding the defensive play in case events conspire to further deteriorate the situation in Russia, Ukraine and Belorus, those who climbed on board the gold bandwagon at the time of the US Debt Ceiling crisis which drove the precious metal up to $2,000, might sagely consider a dismount before the global economic recovery gathers more pace. Some are predicting a sell off down to $1,800 from its current level of USD 1,921.

Cage Fight

News breathlessly reported that Mark Zuckerberg of Meta and Elon Musk of Tesla/Twitter are squaring off at each other and at this point claim that they are both up to fight, in fact cage fight. The bout at a date yet to be specified will take place under the aegis of that august body The Ultimate Fighting Championship at the Vegas Octagon arena. While Musk’s worth at $230 billion eclipses Zuckerberg’s $100 billion, that may not help Musk much in a cage fight: aged 51 and carrying some weight Musk had better train hard if he is to prevail against 39 year old lean machine Zuckerberg.

Y.M.C.A.

This day in 1979 Village People-worth looking at their photo if you are not familiar with them or refreshing yourself if you are familiar with them, 44 years on-became the first disco act to perform at Madison Square Garden in NYC. They had 3 top selling songs: In the Navy, Macho Man and Y.M.C.A, all of which are memorable, but this one probably the best known:

Young man, there’s no need to feel down
I said, young man, pick yourself off the ground
I said, young man, ’cause you’re in a new town 
There’s no need to be unhappy

Young man, there’s a place you can go
I said, young man, when you’re short on your dough
You can stay there, and I’m sure you will find 
Many ways to have a good time

It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.

They have everything for you men to enjoy
You can hang out with all the boys

It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.

You can get yourself clean, you can have a good meal
You can do what ever you feel 

Young man, are you listening to me? 
I said, young man, what do you want to be? 
I said, young man, you can make real your dreams
But you got to know this one thing

No man does it all by himself
I said, young man, put your pride on the shelf
And just go there, to the Y.M.C.A.
I’m sure they can help you today

It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter