Morning Brief – New Zealand

New Zealand

News just out that NZ is opening its borders 2 months early at the end of July. Named as the best politician in the world at the height of the pandemic, PM Jacinda Ardern is not riding so high now with flagging polls on the back of her don’t care economic regime that saw zero tolerance to any risk of infection which in turn showed not merely zero growth but a huge negative for the NZ economy. GBP/NZD 1.95 and NZD expected to strengthen on this welcome news for New Zealand.

US Dollar

EUR/USD 1.0540 and USD at a two decade high. GBP/USD 1.2340. GBP/EUR 1.1700. It all hinges on the US inflation figures due out today at 1330 BST. This quarter inflation is expected to average 7% but the market is still looking for a 2023 average inflation rate in the USA of 1.90%. As such expectations are that inflation has already peaked.

US Equity Market

After a 13% decline in the S&P Index in April, the 2022 decline has, as of today, extended that decline to 16%. As stock market watchers will be aware , once a market has fallen 20% it becomes self fulfilling as markets then declare a bear market officially. What can change the current negative view of equity markets? The answer is overwhelmingly that if the Federal Reserve’s strong interest rate medicine shows that inflation is dampened and peaking, then markets will shrug off their current negativity.

Woodstock

It was this day that the 3 album Woodstock Long Playing vinyl record was released in 1970-I still have my own highly prized copy. Featuring Jimi Hendrix, The Who, Crosby Stills Nash & Young, Joe Cocker and many more, it remains a milestone in any music fan’s of a certain age life. Here is the Country Joe and the Fish song that epitomised the festival and captures the Viet Nam war disillusionment among many people at the time:

Well, come on all of you, big strong men,
Uncle Sam needs your help again.
He’s got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder in Vietnam
So put down your books and pick up a gun,
We’re gonna have a whole lotta fun.
And it’s one, two, three,
What are we fighting for ?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
Next stop is Vietnam;
And it’s five, six, seven,
Open up the pearly gates,
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why,
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.
Come on Wall Street, don’t be slow,
Why man, this is war au-go-go
There’s plenty good money to be made
By supplying the Army with the tools of its trade,
But just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb,
They drop it on the Viet Cong.
And it’s one, two, three,
What are we fighting for ?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
Next stop is Vietnam.
And it’s five, six, seven,
Open up the pearly gates,
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die.
Well, come on generals, let’s move fast;
Your big chance has come at last.
Now you can go out and get those reds
‘Cause the only good commie is the one that’s dead
And you know that peace can only be won
When we’ve blown ’em all to kingdom come.
And it’s one, two, three,
What are we fighting for ?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,
Next stop is Vietnam;

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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