The calm before the storm……?
So that’s the question that markets face today: will tomorrow’s Brexit Debate in the UK Parliament be a damp squib defined as inconclusive or Parliament deciding to apply for an extension to the 29 March Brexit date? That perversely given that fact alone solves none of the Parliamentary disagreement, it will be taken positively. The outcome outliers are: Parliament backing TM’s deal which would even more perversely be seen as a much bigger positive or, heading for the door with No Deal which would be taken as a massive negative for GBP and the UK. Acres more newsprint will be devoted to the various amendments and the probable/putative outcomes to tomorrow night but those are the principal themes.
While we plough through all those articles, spare a thought for the market that affects everyone whether they are homeowners or tenants. London property is the bellwether for the UK stock and currency markets and represents a key indicator for prosperity and most importantly confidence. In 2018 turnover in the London property market fell 14% from 2017 and is now at its lowest level since 2008 which was of course the year of the Crash. Enter from his Chicago base Kenneth Griffin super successful hedge fund supremo who in the past weeks has embarked on a major property acquisition spree in NYC, Chicago and now London where last week he snapped up a £95million house in Carlton Gardens W1. For those who are interested in such stats-e.g. the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer(!)- this will involve HMRC collecting £11,313,750 in Stamp Duty on the Carlton Gardens property. If this sounds mad, I would not bet against Mr Griffin and it is a sure thing that top end property agents will be thanking their various Gods for this news and hoping for a knock on effect in the wider market.
So there we have it: is the UK poised to plunge into an economic abyss or, once the Brexit dust has settled does this represent one of the great opportunities for UK plc and all of its markets? GBP is lower than on Friday night but is holding up well this morning, the FTSE is a little lower and WTI and Brent Crude Oil are both off 2%.
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
UK Wages Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday warned of the pressure on wages that are threatening to lead to a wage price spiral as the effects of inflation on the cost of living together with the 12 consecutive interest rate rises that consumers have experienced. The market has not enjoyed the poor inflation […]
UK inflation – June hike worthy? Yesterday’s inflation data surprised markets. The data was released slightly ahead of European core trading hours. The lighter liquidity available at this time could have resulted in the short-term spike towards 1.2450 on cable and around half a cent to the mid-1.15s within GBPEUR. However, you could, and perhaps […]
International Monetary Fund With no sign of insouciance despite its 180 degree turn in a two month timeframe, the IMF yesterday reversed its downbeat if not disastrous forecasts for the UK and stated the UK is no longer heading for a recession and nor is it the weakest member of the G7 when it comes […]