A Remembrance Sunday to Forget:
The gravitas of yesterday’s Remembrance services were not enough to spare the fortune of the Pound throughout the Asian session last night and into this morning’s European session. Following another disappointing week for Brexit last week, CFTC data recorded yet another surge in net short Sterling positions, reflecting growing concerns about the progress of negotiations. On Sunday, Democratic Unionist Leader Arlene Foster reaffirmed her party’s intention to vote against a Brexit deal resembling May’s incumbent Chequers-based plan. This news led to an impression at market open of Brexit stagnation and domestic political instability as the impression of Theresa May’s minority Conservative government deteriorated. The rally in Brent Crude and WTI Oil at market open this morning gave yet more support to an already strong US Dollar. EURUSD continued to rally down below 1.1250; reaching the lowest rate in over a year. Once again on Sunday, the Italian Prime Minister reaffirmed the incumbent coalition government to remain within the Euro. However, the commitment gave yet another reminder of the risk that Italy poses to the fiscal stability of the Eurozone and the monetary governance of the ECB. For yet another consecutive day, the Euro has fallen.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
GBP While the Bank of England’s decision to pause on raising rates by the narrowest of margins with voting 5-4, that resulted in GBP being sold sharply which reflects the market’s view that while inflation at 6.7% looked better than expected yesterday, the effect of higher oil prices and petrol and diesel at the pumps […]
US Interest Rates Nothing much new over the weekend other than while sifting thought the tea leaves from last week, we found that not one but two members of the FOMC, the rate setting and policy making committee of the Federal Reserve, advocated US interest rates staying higher for longer to crush inflation. Within their […]
A revised 2024 The Dollar opens stronger this morning following the Federal Reserve’s decision last night. The decision confirmed interest rates were to stay on hold following this meeting. As we have highlighted following previous decisions, the forward guidance offered by the Chair Jay Powell was once again underwhelming. However, the Dollar’s bid this morning […]