Markets at the end of the first full week of 2019 have a lot of data and global political risk factors to process and try to make some sense of. Aside from the slew of economic data due out in the UK today, yesterday’s results from the flagship High Street stores were mixed but overall were reflective of the broad downward shift in trading at the end of 2018. The FTSE has recovered to stand at 7000 this morning and the DJIA is at 24000 and Oil (West Texas Intermediate-WTI) is at USD 53.
Stock markets are disappointed by the lack of concrete detail on the US-China trade talks and are trying to make sense of President Trump’s latest pronouncement regarding declaring a state of emergency on border security. Just as a reminder the border in question with Mexico is 2000 miles long of which 600 miles has been fenced or walled, so understandably construction on such a scale is causing heads to be scratched as to whether that is the best use of the US budget.
In Currency land the US Dollar enjoyed a small rally last night with GBP slightly lower due to ongoing Brexit uncertainty, the Euro holding above USD 1.15 and the growing suspicion that GBP is underpinned-caution as ever should be exercised on that as that view is only supported by the belief that a No Deal Exit is NOT going to happen. Firstly, that unfortunately could happen and secondly a poor deal which is both expensive and hobbles the UK will hardly advance the cause of GBP! Next week’s vote in Parliament promises to exacerbate that GBP uncertainty.
Have a great weekend!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – One in three
Charles Porter
Tue 4 Nov 2025
One in three Until recently, the market had held the probability of a rate cut at the Bank of England’s November meeting at near zero. Above-target inflation and insufficient evidence of faltering economic growth alone suggested the BoE would continue to adopt a wait and see approach. Combine that with the uncertainty of the UK […]
Daily Brief – Grinding lower
Charles Porter
Thu 6 Nov 2025
Grinding lower The key currency pairs of GBPUSD and EURUSD continue their slow but consistent grind lower. This story is not just one of dollar strength but also a rotation away from GBP and EUR, in favour of safe havens. Under performance in global equity markets continues to be a factor behind the market’s general […]
Daily Brief – A glimmer of (European) hope
Charles Porter
Tue 28 Oct 2025
A glimmer of (European) hope The ECB has made significant progress in cutting rates towards an accommodative level. The Eurozone saw evidence of cooling inflation much sooner than many economies and has been able to respond accordingly, cutting the deposit rate to 2%. The ECB will meet again this Thursday to publish its latest monetary […]
