Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Wed 30 Nov 2022

European Central Bank

Earlier in the week we wrote about apparently conflicting views from ECB Board members on the path of EUR interest rates, but yesterday the ECB President Mme Lagarde contradicted both her Chief Economist and also her Deputy Luis de Guindos when she gave her own view. In short Mme Lagarde does not agree that the peak of price growth has been reached and consequently Eurozone inflation from its current level of 10.6% will rise further. Just for good measure the ECB President also dampened expectations that inflation once peaked will decline as quickly as some of her Board members, and the markets, are expecting. EUR/USD 1.0365.


With NYMEX WTI having risen sharply yesterday on expectations that China’s zero tolerance to Covid freedoms, it is worth noting that the price is still at $78.60.Other factors apart from the global economy are firstly the expected announcement from OPEC that output will be reduced by 2m BPD, and secondly, that while Europeans are still squabbling about the correct price cap for Russian oil but probably around $65-70, a complete EU ban on purchases of Russian oil is meant to be implemented on December 5 which is less than a week away.


If Easyjet is a bellwether for the European travel market and the impact of the cost of living increases on that market, then it is giving off conflicting signals-maybe. Bookings are up and while Easyjet is still losing money, it is losing less money. In a poll of 2000 people the sample showed that 64% plan to book foreign holidays for 2023 and despite the inflationary outlook and cost of living increases, 70% say that they will prioritise foreign holidays over other expenditure. Back to the signals: Economic history has demonstrated consistently that in times of economic hardship, people spend disproportionately on cheering themselves up. Lastly, the foreign holiday in the age of jet travel has become an expectation rather than the luxury it was only 60 years ago.

UK Minorities

While the share of the English and Welsh populations who said they were white has declined from 86% to 81.7% and Asians, Asian British and Asian Welsh have risen from 7.5% to 9.3%. Christians however have fallen below 50% for the first time falling from 59% in 2011 to 46% in 2021. Those with no religion have increased from 25% to 37%. In case you were wondering why the Scots are excluded, the reason is that due to Covid the Scottish Government delayed their part of the census by a year. Shame really as the Scots might well have redressed the dwindling Christian cohort.

Lisa Marie Presley

Back in 2011 the strange tale of a Swedish lady named Lisa Johansen caught the imagination and attention of the world’s press for a short time. The story was as follows: LJ claimed that LMP had stolen her identity and she, Lisa Johansen was the true daughter of the King. It took a week or two for the suggestion to be made that LJ should take a paternity test. She refused. End of and the story fizzled. Never mind the King probably sold a few more albums on the back of this hoopla. All Shook Up?

Oooh, I’m all shook up
Uh huh uh
Mm mm mm, mm, yay, yay, yay

A well’a bless my soul
What’sa wrong with me?
I’m itchin’ like a man in a fuzzy tree
My friends say I’m actin’ wild as a bug
I’m in love
I’m all shook up
Mm mm mm, mm, yay, yay, yay

Well, my hands are shaky and my knees are weak
I can’t seem to stand on my own two feet
Who do you think of when you have such luck?
I’m in love
I’m all shook up
Mm mm mm, mm, yay, yay, yay

Well, please don’t ask me what’sa on my mind
I’m a little mixed up, but I’m feelin’ fine
I know one cure for this body of mine
Is to have that girl that I love so fine

Well she touched my hand what a chill I got
Her lips are like a volcano when it’s hot
I’m proud to say that she’s my buttercup
I’m in love
I’m all shook up
Mm mm mm, mm, yay, yay, yay
Mm mm mm, mm, yay, yay, yay

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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