Morning Brief – EU Commission

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Fri 16 Feb 2024

EU Commission

Instead of November’s EU growth forecast of 1.2%, the EU Commission has revised back its prediction to 0.8% for the growth in the gross domestic product of the 20 countries. The 2025 year however will see growth of 1.5%. Back to 2024, it is difficult for the EU bloc to grow much when the 3 largest countries are not acting as economic engines pulling the EU train:  Germany is slated to grow by only 0.5% and France 0.9% and Italy 0.6%. Brighter inflation news however with the Commission anticipating 2.7% for 2024 and 2.2% for 2025.
EUR/USD 1.0735.


This week the hot ticket academic Australian must attend event in Melbourne is the Swiftposium. While attendees may be fans of Taylor Swift, most are academics and are tackling the tricky question of quite why Taylor Swift is such a global phenomenon enjoying stratospherically high earnings and celebratory status. Backed by 7 universities in New Zealand and Australia, apart from the Big Question, there are various panel sessions including one catchily named Swiftonomics dealing with the impact of Taylor Swift on the global economy.
USD/AUD 1.5390.

Deal of the Day

Yesterday it was the sale by Rod Stewart of his Song Catalogue to a music rights company named Iconic. Some would say that a catalogue that includes Do Ya Think I’m Sexy and Maggie May might be worth a few quid; but Iconic saw more value in the past his sell by date crooner’s than that,and stumped up USD 100 million for the catalogue plus some name and likeness rights of the singer who could be most charitably described as a hardy annual.
GBP/USD 1.2555.

US Election Unbundled-Maybe

With Ex President Trump 11 points clear of President Biden, the only thing that looks uncertain is what could alter such a lead in the next 9 months bearing in mind that Trump has been endorsed by 76% of the Republican party. That is until a further set of numbers are put into the equation: Trump faces 91 felony charges in 4 separate prosecutions in 3 different jurisdictions. Dates have not been set for 2 of those prosecutions but are expected to take place between March and May. The first prosecution is booked for March 23 in NYC where if found guilty, Trump could face up to 136 years in jail. The next is a federal prosecution which could mean as much as 450 years jail time. The other two, one federal and one in Georgia could mean 55 and 76.5 years respectively. To save you reaching for your calculator, that adds up to 717.5 years. The Georgia prosecution is the only prosecution that carries mandatory jail terms if Trump is found guilty with a minimum 5 years and a maximum 20 years in prison for each felony. The key development has been the recent announcement that Trump is not entitled to immunity as an ex President. So less certain an outcome for the November election.

Careless Whisper

This day in 1985 Wham! Began a 3 week stay at the Top of the Charts with this number that came to frontman heartthrob George Michael then aged 18 while he was riding a bus 4 years earlier. It is not immediately apparent what it was on the bus that inspired what was to become a huge hit for George Michael and his fellow singer Andy Ridgely, but it definitely sold more than “the wheels on the bus go round and round”…..
I feel so unsure
As I take your hand and lead you to the dance floor
As the music dies, something in your eyes
Calls to mind a silver screen
And all its sad good-byes

I’m never gonna dance again
Guilty feet have got no rhythm
Though it’s easy to pretend
I know you’re not a fool
I should’ve known better than to cheat a friend
And waste the chance that I’d been given
So I’m never gonna dance again
The way I danced with you, oh

Time can never mend
The careless whispers of a good friend
To the heart and mind
Ignorance is kind
There’s no comfort in the truth
Pain is all you’ll find

I’m never gonna dance again
Guilty feet have got no rhythm
Though it’s easy to pretend
I know you’re not a fool…

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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