Daily Brief – Shipping Insurance

Shipping Insurance

According to the Lloyds List, typical rates prior to the war for the Straits of Hormuz for a 1 week policy were 0.15% to 0.25% of hull value. Those insurance rates have rocketed to 5% to 10% of hull value for a 1 week policy. While insurance is still available, more of a challenge is to find crews willing to undertake the passage.

EUR/USD 1.1537.

Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade

This is a study undertaken by the McKinsey Global Institute and is otherwise best described as winners and losers from the trade tariffs introduced in 2025. The first myth to be dispelled is that unlike the gloomy forecasts, global trade grew faster than the global economy in 2025. US-China trade fell by 30% and USD 130 billion of Chinese exports evaporated. However, that slack was largely taken up by South East Asia and India. For example, ASEAN exports to the USA rose 14%. Another indicator is in the smartphone market where the US reduced sourcing from China by 40% or USD 18 billion whereas India increased smartphone exports to the US by USd15 billion. China, in a bid to recapture lost exports, cut consumer goods pricing by 8%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis statistic on the US goods and services deficit says it all: in 2024, the US deficit stood at USD 903.5 billion, and in 2025 that deficit had barely moved to USD 901.5 billion. Of course, US tariffs were still being implemented in 2025 but so far the indicators are that those lost Chinese exports to the USA have been re-routed elsewhere in Asia and then to… the USA.

GBP/USD 1.3339.

Eurozone

The men with the clipboards from the OECD were out again yesterday raining on the EU’s parade forecasting that EU growth would fall 0.4% from 1.2% to 0.8% in 2026 as a result of the Iran war with France and Germany both at 0.8% now. Energy price increases will simultaneously see EU inflation rise 0.7% from 1.9% to 2.6%.  As a reminder, global growth is forecast to be 2.9%. It looks as if the Eurozone is getting squeezed by both economic slowdown and a rise in inflation and at the same time for the first time China will sell more cars to the EU than the EU will sell to China. Christine Lagarde has announced that the ECB will not hesitate to raise interest rates to dampen that inflation and the expectation is growing for a hike in April.

GBP/EUR 1.1560.

Girlguiding

You may think that what use to be called the Girls Guides and now comprises 300,000 members from the Rainbows, Brownies, Guides, and Rangers plus 80,000 volunteers has sufficient a clue in the name as to what sex it attracts versus the Boy Scouts for example. Not a bit of it and even more surprisingly it is controversial, with a determined effort by transsexuals to join and the Trans+Solidarity Alliance describing the decision to limit membership to those born biologically female, as heartbreaking. Those who do not conform to that rather clear but hardly astonishing definition have until September to pack up their tents.

GBP/ZAR 22.81.

Y.M.C.A.

Remember the video of Village People singing Y.M.C.A.?  If it is not already seared onto your memory or maybe your eyeballs, take a look at YouTube and you are in for a treat. The question remains 48 years on from its 1978 release is whether the cast were really as wacky as they appeared. The short answer is yes and to illustrate that, this day in 2006 so exactly 20 years ago the policeman in that video, one Victor Willis, having absconded from a drug and gun trial in San Francisco was arrested and found to be in possession of a medley of Class A drugs which earned him a treatment program and 3 years’ probation. And he was one of the more sensible members of Village People.

Young man, there’s no need to feel down
I said, young man, pick yourself off the ground
I said, young man, ’cause your in a new town
There’s no need to be unhappy

Young man, there’s a place you can go
I said, young man, when you’re short on your dough
You can stay there, and I’m sure you will find
Many ways to have a good time.

It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
They have everything
For young men to enjoy.
You can hang out with all the boys.
It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
It’s fun to stay at the Y.M.C.A.
You can get yourself clean
You can have a good meal
You can do whatever you feel.

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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