Daily Brief – November 5

November 5

In the unlikely event that apart from being Guy Fawkes Night, November 5^th is also the day when Americans cast their votes for their next President has passed you by, you may be cheered to learn of who the UK’s Channel Four have lined up to commentate as the results pour in: Stormy Daniels, the adult entertainment personality who challenged Donald Trump in court is perhaps the most surprising but should ensure many more male viewers than otherwise might have been the case. Less contentious but entertaining will also be Boris Johnson, Brian Cox, Caitlyn Jenner and Emily Maitlis. Krishnan Guru-Murthy in the Chair will ensure if not order that the laughs keep coming.

Should they be needed of course.

EUR/USD 1.0925.

ECB

The European Central Bank report published yesterday contained some mixed news: inflation will be below and stay below 2% by the end of 2025 but the economic recovery is fragile with the risk of growth “tilted towards the downside.” Given that EU growth is at best anaemic having fluctuated between 0% and 0.3% in previous quarters, there must be scope for further rate cuts in the minds of the ECB decision makers always assuming that inflation does indeed remain on a downward path.

GBP/USD 1.3044.

France

This is the beauty of being a major player within the EU: unlike Greece which was held to account and put through a punishing series of financial ordeals in the period following 2012, France while failing to meet the mandatory maximum budget deficit of a maximum of 3% by 2027 has simply done what all self respecting university students do when up against a deadline for submitting an essay: apply for an extension. Not for just a matter of a few months but pushing the date out to 2029. Meanwhile PM Michel Barnier is making credential boosting noises by threatening a super tax on corporations with turnover in excess of €1 billion and on anyone earning more than €250K. 

GBP/EUR 1.1945.

Only in America

For UK readers who miss the days when the UK fostered business entrepreneurship: in the USA Todd Graves had a dream and it was chicken fingers. Having worked 90 hour weeks on oil rigs, TG amassed the necessary $50K stake to found Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers. This week Todd Graves is named as being #107 on the Forbes 400 rich list and is worth USD9.5 billion. 

EUR/JPY 162.27.

That’s All Right

The 1954 Sun Studios session when Elvis Presley laid down this number was named the most pivotal moment in rock history this day in 2003. The Rolling Stones’ Jumpin’ Jack Flash could only manage 5^th place. While Bob Dylan’s move from acoustic to electric guitar in 1965 came second.

Well, that’s all right, mama
That’s all right for you
That’s all right mama, just anyway you do
Well, that’s all right, that’s all right
That’s all right now mama, anyway you do

Well mama, she done told me
Papa done told me too
Son, that girl you’re fooling with
She ain’t no good for you
But, that’s all right, that’s all right
That’s all right now mama, anyway you do

I’m leaving town, baby
I’m leaving town for sure
Well, then you won’t be bothered with
Me hanging around your door
But that’s all right, that’s all right
That’s all right now mama, anyway you do

Ah da da dee dee dee dee
Dee dee dee dee, dee dee dee dee
I need your lovin’

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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