Daily Brief – Iceland

Humphrey Percy
Chairman and Founder
Mon 2 Dec 2024

Iceland

Over the weekend the 390,000 people of Iceland who number almost the same as the most populous London Borough of Croydon have cast their votes in a snap election that will likely unseat the current coalition and replace it with another one composed of Social Democrats and the Liberal Reform party. Cost of living is the main issue which has been compounded by a fall in tourism and that means that like the other debutante EU accession countries, Iceland is also split on the merits or otherwise of becoming a member of the bloc. Although Iceland has a high GDP per capita on the back of its fishery and aluminium production industry fuelled by cheap geo thermal hydro electric power so it would qualify under EU membership rules, its citizens are not sufficiently convinced of the merits of hitching their wagon to the EU train.

GBP/EUR 1.2039.

UK Retail

As the till receipts are tallied at the end of the Black Friday shopping weekend in the UK it looks as if the retail sector has had a good few days with spending up 12% on 2023 and 16% on 2022. Less positively for physical stores there the increase is a mere 0.5% with all the action taking place online. Next big day for shopping is predicted to be super Saturday December 21 when shoppers rush to secure last minute gifts and then due to the proximity to Christmas it is expected and hoped by high street shops that footfall rather than click throughs will be the order of the day.

EUR/USD 1.0580.

Oil, Gold and Sterling

As we enter the first week of December the Israel-Hizbollah ceasefire has been positive for Oil with blips only occurring on supply fears when Israel has chosen to break the fragile peace. Brent Oil at $72.46. Gold has steadied on the back of a drop in USD after a terrific post election run at $2657 and has risen a little as a result of Israeli actions in Southern Lebanon post the Wednesday ceasefire. GBP having been named as a haven currency in past times is now referred to as a sensitive currency but remains due to Bank of England caution on rate cuts at heart,  a carry currency due to the perception that GBP rates will remain relatively high to EUR and USD.

GBP/USD 1.2710.

Charlie Chaplin

If any readers want some seasonal cheer why not head to the December 11+12 auction of Savoy Hotel furniture and pictures and pick up a slice of history that will take place at the famous London hotel in the Strand? Included in the sale will be a portrait of Charlie Chaplin painted during one of his visits to the Savoy. 

USD/JPY 149.77

You Don’t Bring Me Flowers

It may be obscure but it is true and it might just clinch that Pub Quiz prize for you: Neil Diamond and Barbra Streisand had both sung this song in 1978 but on this day that year a  DJ in Louisville Kentucky spliced the separate recordings together and played the resulting duet. The song was so popular that the two artists did decide to record it together and the rest is history:

You don’t bring me flowers
You don’t sing me love songs
You hardly talk to me anymore
When I come through the door at the end of the day

I remember when
You couldn’t wait to love me
Used to hate to leave me

Now after lovin’ me late at night
When it’s good for you, babe
And you’re feeling alright
Well, you just roll over and turn out the light
And you don’t bring me flowers anymore

It used to be so natural (used to be)
Talk about forever
But used-to-bes don’t count anymore
They just lay on the floor ’til we sweep them away

And baby, I remember
All the things you taught me
I learned how to laugh
And I learned how to cry
Well, I learned how to love
And I learned how to lie

So you’d think I could learn how to tell you goodbye 
(So you’d think I could learn how to tell you goodbye)
You don’t bring me flowers anymore

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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