Daily Brief – EU Expansion

EU Expansion

With expansion once again on the EU agenda this week and a report saying that more than half the population of the EU are keen to expand the bloc further, it is worth looking at the official candidates: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, Serbia plus Turkey and Ukraine with Kosovo as a potential candidate. Other than Turkey and Ukraine, they are known as the West Balkans or the WB6. Productivity has increased substantially but is well below that of the EU, exports from the WB6 fall far short of their imports and the trade imbalance reflects that lack of productivity and consequently the WB6 still falls short by EUR 15 billion. At the present rate of progress the WB6 economies will converge with the EU in ….2074.

EUR/USD 1.1570.

UK Property Prices

More guff on Friday about house price growth slowing as buyers sit on the sidelines ahead of November 26, Chancellor Reeves’ Budget (assuming she has not been forced to fall on her slide rule over License Gate) and the fear of a property tax. All of the reports have an underlying theme: property prices may have slowed but the trajectory is ever upwards. With present Stamp Duty levels plus a potential Property Tax plus or alternatively a re-drawing of Council tax valuation bands, that ever upwards theory may well belong in the waste paper basket. While it is not currently on the agenda for there to be a property crash given the political necessity of maintaining some semblance of order in the residential property market, the death by a thousand cuts of the buy to let market and the removal of much motivation to be a small landlord, the historic thinking of property ownership as an asset class is coming under threat if it is not already.

GBP/USD 1.3137.

Urbanization

With over 57% of the world’s population now living in cities, the preconceived views surrounding this idea of urbanisation belong in the bin. For example, the world’s largest conurbation is Guangzhou with 72 million citizens. Shanghai and Tokyo both number 40 million +. Delhi, Mumbai, Manila, and Jakarta are all around 30 million. Seoul, Mexico City, Cairo, Bangkok. and São Paulo are all in the next cohort of 25 million. Cities of this gargantuan size are difficult to contemplate for Westerners whose benchmark is NYC with 20 million.

GBP/EUR 1.1345.

Sagrada Familia

Barcelona this week became the city with the tallest church when the Sagrada Familia overtook Ulm, Germany with a new height of 163 meters. It’s not all over as the spire will grow further to 172 meters in coming months finally realizing Gaudi’s vision when the first stone of the SF was laid in 1882.

EUR/JPY 178.29.

Unchained Melody

Thanks to the film Ghost the Righteous Brothers had a huge payday this day in 1990 a mere 25 years after Unchained Melody had been released. Sung by all sorts of artists the 1955 song has become one of the most recorded songs of all time but this 1965 version produced by Phil Spector and sung by the Righteous Brothers is the definitive version.

Oh, my love, my darling
I’ve hungered for your touch
A long, lonely time
And time goes by so slowly
And time can do so much
Are you still mine?
I need your love
I need your love
Godspeed your love to me
Lonely rivers flow
To the sea, to the sea
To the open arms of the sea, yeah
Lonely rivers sigh
“Wait for me, wait for me”
I’ll be coming home, wait for me
Oh, my love, my darling
I’ve hungered, hungered for your touch
A long, lonely time
And time goes by so slowly
And time can do so much
Are you still mine?

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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