Angela Win; Anglo Win?

Our Foreign Exchange Specialist, Charles Porter, speaks with London School of Economics Associate Professor, Dr. Waltraud Schelkle. Regarding Brexit, we discuss how the passing of the German election may accelerate progress within negotiations as well as the possibility, acceptability and likelihood of a Second EU referendum within the UK. 

Understanding the Brexit process, including the rate of progress and the final outcome, is critical when attempting not to get caught out by foreign exchange markets. Our analysis and opinion allows you to make informed decisions and exploit currency market fluctuations to find the best, unique, solution for you.

In this pursuit, below we have transcribed out interview with Dr. Schelkle from the video, also available on youtube. To convert this analysis of the current Brexit process into a tangible, effective and innovative foreign exchange saving, speak with our specialist and follow our analysis.

Charles Porter, Foreign Exchange Specialist, SGM-FX:

Today SGM joins Dr Waltraud Schlekle, who is Associate Professor of Political Economy here at the London School of Economics. Waltraud has been reading political economy for over eighteen years and it is an honour that she joins us here today.

So as we talk about going down either of these paths, the hypothetical deregulation or conformity outside of the European Union, yet still operating within the Single market; wherever we end up, do you think that the passing of the German election might actually facilitate some progress on the Brexit referendum; the secession process?

Dr. Waltraud Schelkle, Associate Professor, London School of Economics:

No. I happen to think, and what I hear in Germany is, that is, Merkel was briefly trying to be helpful when she saw, and I am afraid people like Boris Johnson do not help you very much. In this, they cannot be trusted, they are unknowing, the government does not know itself what it wants, then Merkel has made up her mind. I think her priority is getting the European Union in better shape. And for that, Britain at the moment is not at all helpful. Only Theresa May, and Theresa May in a strong position; that would be another matter. But the way it has gone, I think we just wait and see and unfortunately the clock is ticking for us who live here, in Britain.

Charles Porter, Foreign Exchange Specialist, SGM-FX:

Of course, so in terms of the European Council’s role: until the end, it might not be that significant. At the moment, it is between Michel Barnier and David Davis in order to start these negotiations. Do you think there is almost an impasse within European institutions that’s blocking Brexit progress at the moment? That’s the reason that I think, maybe, the passion of the German elections will free up European institutions to talk about Brexit.

Dr. Waltraud Schelkle, Associate Professor, London School of Economics:

No, I really don’t think that Germany is blocking anything in particular. I don’t even think there is an impasse, because the Europeans have given clear guidelines to Barnier, it’s very comfortable for him to say, ‘well I am just sticking to my brief’. While Britain has not come up with anything clear and the strategy you could negotiate about and you would see where, then, that the problems lie on the side of the Europeans; I am afraid we are not even there yet to see that!

And this means it’s a completely fantasy world to think that you can do that in the next year or so. I discuss it with my colleagues and they do not agree with me; I would think that we just wade into the next election and then we can have an election campaign, as it should be in a democracy, whether people are still warming to this after the first referendum; whether they still want Brexit. To me, that would be the proper way to do it. But my colleagues say they do not think that it will last that long and it’s half because they will wrap it up one way or another before the election campaign and labour will go with it.

Charles Porter, Foreign Exchange Specialist, SGM-FX:

So to some extent, perhaps, in your view, maybe not your colleague’s, Vince Cable’s Liberal Democrat Party, and their line “having a second referendum once we know more”; that’s not anti-democratic to you? It’s not trying to railroad the first referendum?

Dr. Waltraud Schelkle, Associate Professor, London School of Economics:

No, actually that’s quite a normal scenario. If you look at the history of referenda, a friend of mine has done this; it’s quite often that you a second referendum. Now, I do understand why the British did not announce that from the start: I mean, if you had said to them, oh, yeah, we’ll have a second referendum! I mean, then the European’s have no reason to compromise on anything, right? Just let a hard Brexit be there as a threat and then people may back off. So I do understand this, but, at the same time, it is democratically the proper procedure.

This is what New Zealand recently did with its flag and then decided, in the end, for the status quo. That may happen because it is true, and it is a solid argument to say, yes, people voted for Brexit – yes or no – and the majority said yes; so now we try! But whether there was ever a majority for any of the options you have available after Brexit; that is not clear to me.